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Ford didn’t have the hovering progress in EV gross sales within the third quarter because it did earlier within the yr, but it surely did nonetheless see 12% progress in EV (full electrical automobile) gross sales final quarter.
The problem is that its greatest promoting EV, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, had a good quarter final yr in Q3 (14,842 gross sales) and didn’t enhance on that this yr in Q3, and in reality shrunk a bit (down 10% to 13,392 gross sales). With that gross sales hit, there was no likelihood at a 50% progress quarter even with the opposite EV fashions doing very effectively.
On the plus facet, the Ford F-150 Lightning grew 104.5% from 3,503 gross sales to 7,162 gross sales. That’s respectable gross sales in step with the truck’s gross sales within the first half of the yr, however its year-to-date complete of twenty-two,807 remains to be solidly behind the Tesla Cybertruck’s ~27,000 gross sales this yr. Will we see these fashions compete on quantity phrases sooner or later? Or is the Cybertruck going to run away with it as soon as manufacturing ramps up? Or, giving a nod to these extra bearish on the Cybertruck, might the F-150 Lightning steadily climb and surpass the Cybertruck? We will see.
Ford’s different electrical mannequin, the E-Transit, had a 13% enhance in gross sales, going from 2,617 to 2,955 yr over yr within the third quarter.
The Mustang Mach-E remains to be the electrical flag bearer for Ford — and, for my part, the perfect wanting EV in the marketplace — and has 35,626 gross sales in 2024 by way of the primary three quarters. Nonetheless, even with one other 15,000 gross sales within the 4th quarter, it could simply barely surpass 50,000 gross sales. And, all mixed, Ford’s EV gross sales are at 67,689 within the first three quarters of the yr, maybe reaching 90,000 or 100,000 by the tip of the yr. As I reported not too long ago, younger NIO and Xpeng are on monitor for greater than 250,000 gross sales a yr extrapolating from September figures. However, hey, that’s totally different territory — the Chinese language auto market is far additional together with EVs than the US, and most of that comes right down to federal coverage. Greater than 50% of auto gross sales in China are actually plugin automobiles — and, as a lot as we are able to and will credit score corporations like BYD, Xpeng, and NIO for making that occur, we now have to be trustworthy and observe that the largest issue supporting that EV market is powerful authorities insurance policies.
Getting again to Ford, the corporate’s 67,689 gross sales by way of the primary three quarters of 2024 are a forty five% enhance over the 46,671 gross sales of the primary three quarters of 2023. We celebrated Tesla attaining ~50% annual will increase in gross sales when it was at that stage, and I feel it’s nonetheless price celebrating Ford’s ~50% enhance in gross sales yr over yr. Nonetheless, provided that the third quarter had solely a 12% enhance in gross sales, we have to see one thing change for Ford to maintain that higher tempo up. The corporate wants extra EV fashions — an method that has labored very effectively for Mercedes and BMW — and must maintain backing and selling the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning whereas working to chop their costs. Given adjustments in narrative this yr from Ford, I’m skeptical about Ford strongly persevering with down this path within the close to to mid-term future. However I do assume Ford remains to be striving to be a frontrunner within the EV market. On that matter, you may see how Ford compares to its opponents within the US EV market within the following experiences from the second quarter (third quarter experiences coming quickly):
Oh, to shut, Ford’s total gross sales had been up 1% and its retail gross sales had been up 4% within the third quarter. So, in comparison with that, 12% EV progress remains to be considerably higher. The EV market remains to be pulling the general auto market ahead.
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