Like a soft-hearted boxer attempting to present the gang worth for cash, Apple has carried out its greatest for years to maintain Google standing within the smartphone ring. If it actually exerted itself, we all the time felt, the Cupertino Crusher might put the Mountain View Mangler on the canvas briefly order. However the firm might by no means fairly deliver itself to use the coup de grâce.
The explanation, in fact, has nothing to do with charity—Apple merely doesn’t need to launch an iPhone that’s higher or dearer to fabricate than it must be. It has quite a few benefits over the varied Android {hardware} distributors: it has more cash to spend on R&D, it may possibly management and optimise {hardware} and software program collectively, it has higher buyer belief and model recognition, and its enterprise mannequin isn’t primarily based on promoting and information seize. However whereas an “insanely great” iPhone may kill Android as a sensible various, it might lower into revenue margins and go away Apple with nowhere to go the next 12 months. A greater long-term technique is to launch telephones simply sufficient higher than the earlier era to shift some models… and Google is welcome to stay round within the meantime.
Nonetheless, you may’t sustain this type of factor indefinitely. In truth, it seems to be like 2025 would be the 12 months when the iPhone lastly establishes a transparent and indeniable lead over its rival. I’m not saying Android goes the way in which of BlackBerry and Home windows Cellphone fairly but, however I believe that by this time subsequent 12 months the writing shall be on the wall and the graphs will all be moving into a route that makes Tim Prepare dinner completely happy.
IDG
On the price range finish of the market, huge adjustments are coming to the iPhone SE, a product that’s endured a troublesome couple of years however, as I wrote again in April, seems to be set for a comeback within the subsequent iteration. The Third-gen mannequin failed to supply any worthwhile enhancements on the favored 2nd-gen SE, however studies recommend that Apple has realized its lesson: it’s lastly going to maneuver on from that antiquated chassis and provides the following SE a 6.1-inch OLED display, Face ID, an A16 processor, and very good cameras. (Extremely, it seems to be like will probably be primarily based on the design of this 12 months’s iPhone 16.) The value will certainly be increased, however not by an enormous quantity, and $499 for that spec checklist goes to be troublesome to withstand.
If Apple lastly takes that part of the market critically, it’ll characterize a serious blow to Android’s prospects and telephones just like the Pixel 9a and Samsung Galaxy S24 FE. However extra unhealthy information is coming on the premium finish within the type of the iPhone 17. If prospects apparently go nuts for cautious iterative updates just like the iPhone 15 and 16, what’s going to they make of the redesigned iPhone Air?
Believable rumors level to a shake-up in 2025, with Apple ditching the 17 Plus and changing it with a 17 Air (or Slim, or another branding). This handset shall be considerably thinner and lighter than the opposite fashions and will contain some compromises to accommodate this. In different phrases, it’s an iPhone X-like danger, however as my colleague Jason argues, it’s the sort that Apple must take. By changing the reportedly weakest-selling mannequin within the line with one thing daring, new, and trendy, the corporate will create buzz and enchantment to prospects who’re uninterested in the identical outdated iPhone look—in addition to entice some switchers alongside the way in which.
In the event you suppose the iPhone 16 Professional Max is skinny, simply wait till the iPhone 17 Air.
Foundry
Apart from the aesthetic and comfort implications of a slimmer design, the 17-series iPhones also needs to deliver two sensible and at the moment Professional-exclusive display options–ProMotion, and the always-on show–and provide them throughout the vary. This can materially improve the enchantment of Apple’s base fashions and certain tempt much more Android customers to make the soar. Apple loves an upsell, which is why it holds again options like this for years for the dearer telephones. However they drop right down to the usual fashions ultimately, and that’s when their actual affect on gross sales is felt.
In different phrases, all of it seems to be promising for the iPhone in 2025, and ominous for the Android ecosystem. Apple followers are even seeing enhancements within the areas the place the corporate has traditionally been weak. It was late to get on the AI bandwagon, however Apple Intelligence is rolling out this 12 months and is prone to discover its toes in 2025. iOS is painted as overly restrictive in the case of person customization, however iOS 18 is way extra versatile than any of Apple’s earlier software program updates—we are able to even tint icons and put them the place we would like! Even latest defeats for Apple, adjustments imposed by political our bodies similar to permitting third-party app shops and (with the utmost reluctance) catering to person repairs, add to the general enchantment of its product ecosystem. A much less inflexible walled backyard could also be much less worthwhile for Apple however it’s precisely the sort of factor that can entice curious Android customers.
Is there something left that Android does higher than the iPhone? Truthfully, not a lot. I suppose you’d have to incorporate foldables in that class, though I ponder how many individuals really care. And the second folding smartphones turn out to be a worthwhile market, you’d think about Apple would swoop in with a folding iPhone that’s higher than something supplied by the competitors.
So no, I don’t suppose there’s any getting back from this. Android’s had a good run, and did properly to remain on its toes this lengthy. However let’s be sincere: It’s time to chuck within the towel earlier than this struggle will get ugly. RIP.