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Market Knowledge Exhibits the Worth of Transmission Remained Excessive in Sure Places Regardless of Total Low Wholesale Electrical energy Costs
In 2023 extra electrical energy transmission would have supplied probably the most worth for hyperlinks that crossed between grid interconnection areas in america or crossed between system operator areas inside the identical interconnection. The U.S. has three interconnection areas masking the western U.S., the japanese U.S., and Texas. Added transmission worth is equal to lowered price. Many multi-interconnection or multi-region hyperlinks had values of larger than $20/MWh, or as much as $175 million/yr per 1 GW expanded transmission. The technical transient discusses import caveats about whole worth estimates. In distinction to those excessive worth hyperlinks, many hyperlinks inside areas, or between areas within the northeast, had comparatively low values in 2023, following the general decline in wholesale electrical energy costs in 2023 in contrast with 2021-2022. In our new technical transient, we analyze transmission worth throughout the contiguous United States. We additionally discover an instance of a singular worth of transmission that’s completely different from worth created by different options, similar to constructing native era sources — its capability to ship advantages to 2 areas and ease constraints on account of a number of sorts of circumstances.
To be taught extra about transmission worth in 2023, see our technical transient right here.
Replace with market information in 2023
Within the technical transient, we discover the potential worth, or equivalently, the potential financial savings, that new transmission may have supplied in 2023. The evaluation differs from modeling approaches which can be generally used to worth transmission, as it’s primarily based solely on the distinction in wholesale-market vitality costs between areas. Once we discuss with ‘transmission value’ we’re referring to the worth of extra transmission as indicated by locational worth arbitrage.
This evaluation builds on our previous analysis. For instance, see:
Key Findings for 2023
Within the technical transient we offer extra element describing these key factors:
- Transmission worth correlates with common wholesale electrical energy costs, and thus the decline to wholesale electrical energy costs in 2023 versus 2022 meant that many hyperlinks noticed a decline in worth in 2023 (Determine 2). Nonetheless, plenty of interregional hyperlinks maintained values near or above $20/MWh, or equivalently, $175 million per GW of transmission capability per 12 months (Determine 1). This and all worth estimates are topic to caveats mentioned within the technical transient.
- Areas that noticed the most important decline in transmission worth from 2022 to 2023 embody the northeast and mid-Atlantic, together with the PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE footprints. Each declining pure gasoline costs and the shortage of a climate occasion in 2023 much like winter storm Elliott led to this decline.
- Hyperlinks between Texas and the Southwest had the very best worth potential in 2023, peaking at larger than $60/MWh or $526 million per GW of recent transmission.
- Differing regional circumstances drove the excessive worth potential for hyperlinks between Texas and Southwest, with excessive wintertime pure gasoline costs within the southwest, however not Texas, driving transmission worth throughout the winter, and excessive electrical energy demand related to an unusually scorching summer time in Texas driving transmission worth throughout the summer time (Determine 3).
- Of notice is that although each Texas and the Southwest noticed document summer time warmth in 2023, circumstances had been completely different sufficient in every area that peak electrical energy costs occurred at completely different hours in every area (Determine 4). This mismatch in timing of excessive costs demonstrates a specific worth of transmission — even neighboring areas going through the identical large-scale heatwave could have variations within the hours of peak vitality want enabling transmission to scale back excessive costs in each areas.
Key Limitations
The technical transient describes necessary caveats and key limitations to the evaluation, together with the implications of the ‘marginal’ worth calculations and extra context.
See extra in our technical transient at: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/transmission-value-2023-market-data.
Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the U.S. Division of Power’s Workplace of Power Effectivity and Renewable Power below Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely accountable for any omissions or errors contained herein.
Study extra.
Electronic mail from Lawrence Berkeley Nationwide Laboratory.
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