Concerning FSD & Robotaxis, I Do not Suppose Elon Musk Has Been “Lying” For A Decade – CleanTechnica – Uplaza

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I’ve seen this declare numerous occasions, and I perceive the place it’s coming from, however I don’t imagine it. I usually brush previous it, however given {that a} high laptop scientist referred to as the “Godfather of AI” simply stated it, and likewise given the large controversy and confusion round Elon Musk nowadays (or, effectively, possibly most of his life), I really feel compelled to lastly tackle it — and likewise tackle how the elemental points might relate to numerous different vital issues.

The declare is that Elon Musk has been mendacity to everybody about Full Self Driving for years. Extra particularly, this has involved his claims over the previous a number of years that Tesla autos could be succesful, technologically, of working as robotaxis “next year” or “by the end of the year.” Musk kicked off these claims in 2016, if I recall appropriately, when he stated on a quarterly Tesla shareholder convention name, “Well, again, major product announcements are not — I shouldn’t do those on an earnings call, obviously. And all I’d say is that full autonomy is going to come a hell of a lot faster than anyone thinks it will. And I think what we’ve got under development is going to blow people’s minds. It blows my mind, so….” If I bear in mind appropriately, that is the primary critical assertion he made that implied robotaxis could be coming quickly. However earlier than we go additional on these ongoing claims, let’s get again to what the “Godfather of AI” simply stated.

Yann LeCun, VP & Chief AI Scientist at Meta, wrote: “Elon: ‘I’ve kept lying to you again and again about Tesla’s ‘Full Self Driving’ capabilities for the last 8 years, but you should believe everything I say about politics and everything else.’” This was a brief remark he made whereas sharing a protracted critique of Elon’s FSD claims over time. He added in response to somebody who wasn’t a fan of his Musk “hating” on X: “I don’t hate Elon. I hate his lies. I like his cars, rockets, and satellite network.” (Hat tip to Futurism.)

Mendacity is saying one thing you already know shouldn’t be true. Sure, I do assume Musk has lied just a few occasions about FSD (and I don’t excuse him for that), however typically talking, individuals use this phrase when speaking about his utterly off-the-mark forecasts about Tesla robotaxi functionality. Bear in mind the LA-to-NYC journey a Tesla was alleged to make autonomously? Bear in mind all of the occasions he predicted Tesla autos could be able to working as robotaxis in a few years, subsequent 12 months, and even by the tip of the 12 months? I’m not going to dig all of them up and timestamp them proper now, however there have been many, and I assume they’re documented within the Dan O’Dowd article Yann LeCun was responding to. The purpose is that he has made these statements, they had been fallacious, and it has principally change into a working joke — as a result of what number of years in a row are you able to make a really related projection and be fallacious? And that’s a part of why individuals have known as it mendacity or known as him a “snake oil salesman.”

Musk himself has stated that he’s simply overly optimistic, particularly with timelines. Others near him, like his brother Kimbal, have stated the identical. I feel that is a part of it, however solely a part of it. The truth that I’ve come to see this as solely a part of it’s doubtlessly an vital level.

If it was nearly timing, effectively, nobody is saying all the utterly off-the-mark predictions aren’t vital*, however the concept that his mind simply lacks a correct calendar and all the pieces can be true in time is extra palatable for followers than doubting his core understanding of the matter. (*Sorry, that’s a false assertion really — many Elon followers do contend that each one of these missed forecasts aren’t vital.) The critique of his timelines is a well-liked one amongst followers. You’ll be able to’t moderately ignore that his FSD/robotaxi predictions have been horrible on the subject of timing, however you’ll be able to put a optimistic spin on it by saying that he simply thinks that far forward of everybody else and doesn’t count on it to take so lengthy to get there.

Nonetheless, he’s really acquired a assorted observe regard with the timing of issues. His long-term forecasts for Tesla manufacturing and gross sales from the early 2010s, and even earlier than that, had been nearly spot on taking a look at what the corporate achieved in 2020. There have been some dangerous short-term forecasts inside that timeframe, however the long-term forecast was loopy good. (I wrote about this again in 2020 or so, with documentation from an early Tesla slidedeck for traders and early statements from Musk.) However his forecasts on another issues — photo voltaic glass roof tiles, deployment of the Tesla Semi, Tesla Cybertruck pricing and vary, Tesla battery developments, Tesla photo voltaic progress, the necessity (or lack thereof) for bodily shops — have been a lot worse. So, sure, typically he nails it however all the pieces takes longer than anticipated; different occasions, opposite to what some followers imagine, his assumptions and predictions are simply off.

With rocket ships and electrical automobiles, we’ve seen that his preliminary concepts relating to sure potentialities in these realms and his obsession with turning these concepts into actuality have led to nice success at Tesla and SpaceX. That time period “obsession” is purposeful. When he has assumed issues that weren’t true, however, and utilized his obsession to the duty, he has ended up with notable failures.

As we’ve seen him tweet about quite a lot of different issues lately, we’ve seen an identical form of obsession with just a few completely different issues. In 2022, he tweeted, “I’m thinking of creating a ‘Super Moderate Super PAC’ that supports candidates with centrist views from all parties.” Anybody who follows his tweets nowadays ought to chortle out loud at the concept that Musk would assist “moderate” politicians. He has change into extremely controversial, he has repeatedly tweeted extremist conspiracy theories, he has change into extremely partisan, he has engaged in frequent identify calling and private assaults, and he has even gone to battle quite a few occasions with reasonable politicians, to not point out reasonable regular individuals. The factor is that he will get obsessive over an thought, and that may result in an increasing number of excessive habits and failures quite than adjusting and altering course. It will possibly additionally result in overcoming tough obstacles and succeeding in issues which are extraordinarily tough. He’s not likely the kind of one who’s fast to soak up counterarguments and cease believing in an thought — for higher or for worse.

That’s the place we get again to FSD and robotaxis. Clearly, Musk has put all his religion in these working. I feel that every time he made a forecast about these coming “next year” or such, he strongly believed it. At the same time as Tesla has failed at completely different steps, Musk has clung to the preliminary imaginative and prescient and been adamant it can come true. He hasn’t been mendacity. He has merely change into obsessed along with his preliminary assumptions, time and time once more. The query is: is that this a case the place he’s simply off, and the elemental evaluation and prediction gained’t come true, or is that this a case the place he’s acquired the basics down, and he simply wants time to be confirmed proper? We will see….