Hydrogen for Vitality Serves Fossil Gasoline Pursuits Not Local weather Change or Economic system – CleanTechnica – Uplaza

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The long-running seminar collection for India’s utility professionals by means of the India Good Grid Discussion board closed with hydrogen. The hype glitter is beginning to tarnish, however there may be nonetheless quite a lot of substance-less shiny noise across the molecule. To that finish, I stepped by means of the challenges and why hydrogen is nearly all the time a costlier selection than current, commercialized options for vitality purposes.

The video presentation is embedded under, and a frivolously edited transcript with slides follows.

Reji Kumar (RK): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the individuals and it’s our subsequent version of this webinar. We’re blissful to schedule. Now that is on hydrogen. So lots of you’ve seen a number of waves of hydrogen, possibly for the final 30-40 years, completely different waves of hydrogen. And the hydrogen economic system, individuals have been speaking about it for the reason that Nineteen Eighties, so none of them grew to become very profitable. Billions of traders’ {dollars} have gone down the prepare. There are answers, there are applied sciences, however not competing with different current applied sciences. And at present the final wave of hydrogen we began about 5 years in the past, tons of of billions of {dollars} have been dedicated for inexperienced hydrogen which will likely be constructed from renewable vitality by means of electrolyzers and that hydrogen will likely be compressed to -260 diploma centigrade and transported to completely different areas for various use circumstances. Sounds very vitality inefficient.

In the event you take a look at the whole vitality within the worth chain of hygiene manufacturing, together with transportation, individuals speaking about operating, in actual fact experimented operating trains, hydrogen trains in totally electrified tracks, issues have gone to that extent. We don’t know who’s guiding these items, who’s investing in these applied sciences. And all inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing has, by means of electrolyzer, concerned essential minerals that are quick in provide. The initiatives which have been dedicated and initiatives for which funding has been dedicated to finish. And people electrolysis, the uncommon supplies which will likely be produced within the subsequent 50 years, is probably not enough. And one other research which Barnard had achieved early this 12 months says that nearly 99% of the initiatives that are introduced, there are not any patrons as a result of it’s very costly.

So he’ll take us by means of at this time within the webinar concerning the precise economics and dynamics of inexperienced hydrogen. Over to Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji, and as all the time, thanks to the ISGF as properly for permitting me to take part in a small manner in aiding the good nation of India to search out that path that features each prosperity in your, for all and local weather motion.

So that is an attention-grabbing cowl web page. It’s a grade seven scholar. He’s making hydrogen in a faculty lab as a result of that’s concerning the age, grade seven, round twelve years previous, the place youngsters make hydrogen in class. And this results in quite a lot of misperceptions. The misperception is, properly, if youngsters can do it’s low cost, it’s simple, and due to this fact it is going to scale and turn into economically viable instead. They let it on fireplace. They see the vitality. Sadly, that leads an entire bunch of individuals down a backyard path. That is really a canopy graphic from a brief story of a devoted hydrogen vitality researcher that I wrote, which went by means of each single small backwater of hydrogen and confirmed why all of them had been uneconomic and unviable in comparison with options.

So I’m going to spin you thru a number of the framing slides from that illustration. Sometimes any person says, properly, you missed x. And I’m considering, no, I didn’t. I spent quite a lot of time taking a look at each a part of hydrogen, partially as a result of it’s attention-grabbing, partially as a result of why are we spending a lot time on it, together with this seminar, when it’s not match for goal? Now, observe, that’s hydrogen for vitality, not hydrogen for industrial feedstocks, which it’s. Final framing piece. Hydrogen at this time is a local weather change drawback on the size of all aviation. We use it to refine oil, we use it to make fertilizer, we use it to make methanol, we use it to do a bunch of different stuff. And hydrogen at this time is an enormous carbon bomb.

And so we’ve got this actual disconnect between fixing a local weather drawback versus fixing different local weather issues. So I’m going to begin out with. I’ve created these framework charts. They’re simply little framework charts. They’re quite simple. They’ve a, you understand, continuum. On this case, it’s costly, which goes to be a recurrent theme versus cheaper, they usually have soiled versus clear. So after you take a look at every of those charts, simply have a look on the labels to see what the measurement is. And so that is manufacturing hydrogen. It’s problematic. You already know, we will have soiled and low cost, soiled and comparatively low cost hydrogen. Simply bye. Utilizing steam reformation of pure gasoline, or coal gasoline, the 2 major strategies, or oil, even any hydrocarbon, to separate the hydrogen out and make a bunch of carbon dioxide, which will get made into the ambiance.

And that’s nonetheless. That’s the most cost effective hydrogen that exists, and it’s 99.9% of all hydrogen manufactured at this time. Now, we will add carbon seize to steam reformation, however that makes it fairly a bit costlier. Then there’s one thing known as pyrolysis, which is definitely thermolysis, as an skilled within the know-how advised me just lately, the place we put methane right into a sealed chamber within the absence of oxygen, and we warmth it up, and it turns into three tons of black carbon and a ton of hydrogen. So it’s actually a producing mechanism for black carbon, which we don’t want that a lot of, however but once more, costlier than steam reformation of methane. However it’s cleaner. Pure gasoline pyrolysis, whereas a lifeless finish, in addition to many of the others, is problematic.

After which we even have low carbon electrolysis. In precise low carbon electrolysis, we will’t simply use grid electrical energy, as a result of grid electrical energy isn’t clear sufficient to make it really decrease carbon than simply making hydrogen from pure gasoline utilizing the dirtiest mechanism, the grid electrical energy. What we require is a trifecta of additionality. Additionality, which implies we add the identical quantity of vitality within the type of renewables to the grid close to the. That we want. For the hydrogen, we want temporality, which implies the renewables are producing electrical energy concurrently the hydrogen is required, after which we require locality, which is the hydrogen. The renewables are in the identical area of the grid because the hydrogen is being manufactured.

The rationale for these three necessities is that if we take a grimy grid, like proper now in Europe, Poland remains to be utilizing quite a lot of coal. It has some insufficient plans to get off of them with nuclear, however. And it’ll finally be taught that it wants quite a lot of renewables. If individuals made hydrogen in Poland utilizing the grid and simply constructed a bunch of wind farms and photo voltaic farms in Spain, the hydrogen manufactured in Poland would nonetheless be filthy, and it might add necessities for electrical energy in a excessive carbon grid, which might be met by carbon sources. That’s why the three causes are there, they usually add challenges by way of doing this proper now, it’s an issue for a lot of issues. Then there’s white hydrogen. Proper now, there’s quite a lot of hype about geological sources of hydrogen. However there’s sources, after which there’s confirmed sources. The truth that there’s some hydrogen down there doesn’t imply that it’s recoverable economically, and it doesn’t imply it’s recoverable economically.

And within the volumes which might be required, the largest ones which were recognized are simply not that massive, they usually’re unproven sources. There’s an estimation of how a lot hydrogen is in there, however that doesn’t imply we will get well it. To offer you a examine and distinction, one of many widespread methods that’s used within the oil and gasoline business is enhanced oil restoration, the place we put carbon dioxide down a tactile oil properly to unlock an entire bunch of the unrecoverable useful resource that’s in there. Identical factor with hydrogen. It is available in a wide range of types underground. We don’t know the way a lot we’ll be capable of get out of it. And most of these sources aren’t wherever close to the place hydrogen is required. That’s an issue.

So type of the subsequent drawback with hydrogen is definitely storing it. The extra this one’s dense versus diffuse, an enormous drawback with hydrogen, and cheaper versus costly. The massive drawback with hydrogen is it’s one of many least dense gases within the universe. It’s proper down there. It’s simply the molecules don’t wish to be very shut collectively. They separate and scattered like a pack of kittens you set down, they usually simply all run in several instructions. As a room temperature gasoline, it’s extremely diffuse. It’s comparatively low cost to retailer, however you’ll be able to’t retailer very a lot of it. And that is type of an issue. You all the time hear the factor. Effectively, it’s extremely vitality dense, however that’s by mass. Sadly, hydrogen just isn’t vitality dense by quantity. And the quantity is problematic as a result of we will’t think about a hydrogen automobile. We will’t tow a zeppelin balloon just like the Goodyear blimp stuffed with hydrogen behind a automobile. We’ve to compress it down.

And in order that will get to the traditional course of, which is pressurizing it to 350 to 700 atmospheres of strain in particular tanks designed for that, utilizing particular compressors. And this can be a drawback space that most individuals don’t take into consideration. Most individuals don’t take into consideration compressors, however compressors have gaskets and internals, and the upper the pressures, the extra exactingly they must be machined, the higher the tolerances must be. The costlier the supplies must be. And the extra, the smaller the molecules that they’re compressing, the upper. The extra. The costlier the supplies, the costlier the tolerances, the costlier the machining. And so hydrogen, as a result of it’s such a diffuse gasoline and requires such excessive pressures, really has the costliest compressors round for 700 atmospheres of strain. This stuff are non trivial package.

I did an evaluation of California’s hydrogen refueling stations, they usually had been seeing vital failures, 50% of which had been associated particularly to the compressors. Failing gaskets go on compressors for hydrogen on a regular basis and have to get replaced. They’re not low cost. They’re probably the most costly elements on this course of. They’re up there by way of expense with the very costly storage mechanisms, with the very costly storage mechanism we’re taking a look at right here. So this nonetheless isn’t very dense. A Toyota Mirai has nearly 5 kilograms of hydrogen, the vitality equal of about 5 gallons of gasoline in a tank, at 700 atmospheres. It’s fairly a exceptional testimony to security engineering that none of them have exploded like a kinetic bomb. So it’s fairly fascinating. So individuals have been searching for different options. Liquid natural hydrogen carriers have been found and been round for a very long time.

They lock hydrogen into one thing that’s extra dense, a liquid, and it’s costlier, and it’s gradual to get in, it’s gradual to get out, and it’s extra energetic necessities. Equally, liquid hydrogen, chilling it all the way down to about 20 levels above absolute zero, is viable and we do it, but it surely’s additionally costlier. It creates higher density. However then you’ve one thing which is 290 levels under what we think about a cushty temperature. Effectively, though I’m talking to an viewers in New Delhi the place 30 levels Celsius is taken into account a cushty temperature. So it’s 300 levels under what you think about a cushty temperature, and it boils off, and it’s extremely problematic. Then we get to metallic hydride storage, the place it locks it right into a metallic substrate, and that’s much more costly and extra problematic by way of getting the hydrogen out and in.

Every of those will increase the quantity of vitality required to do that. For instance, liquid hydrogen, about 30% of the vitality that’s saved as liquid hydrogen is. Is required to show hydrogen into liquid hydrogen. So that is a part of the issue. Each time we open up a part of the issue of hydrogen, it simply will get an increasing number of costly to unravel the issues. And there’s an increasing number of issues. There are answers, however they’re not low cost options. And expense issues as a result of hydrogen is competing with different options. It’s competing with direct grid tied electrification. And, you understand, for these, I’m certain the entire individuals on this name know that India is on monitor to have its heavy freight rail totally electrified with overhead wires. This 12 months, Reji talked about rail. Effectively, guess what? We’ve been electrifying rail immediately for over 100 years. That is trivial know-how.

We all know methods to do it. We all know methods to ship the vitality that manner. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play there, and but individuals make the assertion. Equally for vehicles, batteries, or warmth pumps, et cetera, et cetera. And so they’re all less expensive. All these approaches which might be options to hydrogen are less expensive and extra dependable than utilizing hydrogen.

So there’s transferring it round. Shifting your hydrogen round as a result of it’s as soon as once more so diffuse is one other place the place it’s costly. The one low cost strategy to transfer hydrogen round is to ship the feedstocks, water, and electrical energy, within the case of inexperienced hydrogen, pure gasoline, within the case of unabated grey hydrogen, to the place the hydrogen is required. And to be clear, 85% of all hydrogen consumed globally at this time, about 100 to 120 million tons we manufacture, 85% is manufactured on the level the place it’s used.

And that’s as a result of transferring it round is de facto costly. The following most cost-effective manner is hydrogen pipelines, and that is nonetheless cheaper, by the way in which. I’ll simply say that making hydrogen the place it’s used, we use none of it for vitality at this time as a result of options, together with simply utilizing electrical energy immediately, are nonetheless cheaper on a per. You already know, choose your. Decide your unit of vitality on a per BtU, on a per MMBTU, on a per megajoule, per kilowatt hour. It’s all the time cheaper to make use of the pure gasoline or the electrical energy immediately reasonably than make hydrogen after which use the hydrogen for vitality, you understand, that’s why, you understand, the mass majority of hydrogen automobiles on this planet at this time are utilizing grey hydrogen, and it’s costing them wherever from $15 to $35 per kilogram to refill. It’s simply not low cost. However hydrogen pipelines exist.

There are a few of them in Germany, within the industrial space, the place they go from a steam reformation facility to a plant, and there’s some in the US the place they go from steam reformation vegetation to refineries. However these hydrogen pipelines in Germany carrying fossil hydrogen, that’s unabated, they’re charging $6 to $8 US per kilo for that. And that’s the most cost effective hydrogen that may exist. The pipelines aren’t very lengthy. They’re industrial scale pipelines carrying industrial scale volumes of hydrogen, and but it’s nonetheless $6 to $8 per kilogram for that hydrogen. After which we get into different an increasing number of costly methods to maneuver hydrogen round. Hydrogen tube vans, mainly carrying pressurized gaseous hydrogen. Effectively, you want about 14 of them to hold as a lot as a diesel gas tube truck, and that’s simply not a possible or sensible strategy to ship hydrogen.

Liquid hydrogen tankers, liquefying hydrogen and placing it in tanks that drive on roads with college buses, is definitely being severely proposed. And to be clear, we do it, however we do it in very particular circumstances the place we want liquid hydrogen as the one factor that may work. And really specifically skilled individuals ship that at excessive price. Then there’s the proposal of the liquid hydrogen service, liquid natural hydrogen service tankers, whether or not that’s, you understand, ammonia or one thing else, you understand, another service. And I simply maintain stepping on the energetic amount of these items. It simply will get very costly.

I labored out that if we shipped ammonia, for instance, it might be 9 instances as costly per unit of vitality for Japan because the coal it’s supposed to interchange. That’s with filth low cost hydrogen. And each good thing about the doubt is simply costly to ship hydrogen. So we don’t do it at this time, and we’re not going to do a lot of it tomorrow. Then there’s hydrogen tanker ships, the place individuals suggest to liquefy hydrogen and put it in tankers, and any person’s demonstrated that it’s simply extremely costly. I labored out that it might be 5 instances as costly for transport as liquid pure gasoline in a single case. So that is type of the issue. It’s less expensive to ship electrical energy to locations than it’s to ship hydrogen to locations. And the wires principally exist already the place we really want vitality, we have to beef them up. We have to beef up the transformers and converters, however that’s simply the character of the beast.

Then there’s security and the way we really use hydrogen. You don’t hear many tales, though some, about hydrogen failures.

One of many massive causes is that principally we make hydrogen the place it’s utilized in industrial settings, the place individuals know methods to use hydrogen safely, they usually have hydrogen sensors, they usually have all types of security procedures. However even there, I believe it was Linde, one of many massive hydrogen suppliers in Europe, just lately had a bit of little bit of a security drawback. You might need heard about it just because there’s numerous information nowadays about individuals not with the ability to get hydrogen. So hydrogen fleets being suspended, like hydrogen trains in Germany are unable to run as a result of they’ll’t get hydrogen. Hydrogen vans and hydrogen college buses and hydrogen vehicles are begging for hydrogen as a result of there’s no hydrogen. And why?

Effectively, as a result of a tanker of gaseous hydrogen in a Linde plant that was being stuffed with hydrogen for supply to a fueling station, had what’s known as a deflagration occasion, which is a subsonic explosion. Mainly, it caught fireplace and exploded, which is an issue with hydrogen, extra so than with diesel or gasoline. And so they had some harm that blew out quite a lot of home windows inside a big radius and broken a number of the facility. So that they needed to shut it down they usually needed to recall all of the tube tankers security checks. And in order we get from right here, secure up right here, secure, making hydrogen the place it’s used unsafe, just about every part else is questionable, viable versus unviable by way of utilizing hydrogen as an vitality service. So liquid hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, truck refueling.

You already know, Daimler is exploring this with Linde in Europe, and it’s only a foolish thought. Shifting liquid hydrogen round in vans to place into different vans, to drive round on highways to hold Kleenex is simply not a smart thought. Once we can simply use electrical energy and batteries, that’s vastly safer and far much less more likely to explode. I simply learn an evaluation of 1 proposal for a liquid hydrogen for a hydrogen refueling station in Europe, the place they superimposed the security setbacks for people lives not being misplaced and vital infrastructure harm not occurring as two radiuses round this factor, and regarded on the variety of residences and buildings round that. And but this proposed hydrogen refueling station security wasn’t even a requirement of the remit. Hydrogen is a extremely explosive gasoline. We use it industrially, in giant portions, the place we’ve got particular security measures in place.

And like many harmful substances, we all know how to try this. We all know how to try this in industrial settings with extremely skilled individuals, not in gasoline stations and never round different individuals. We don’t put huge quantities of ammonia beside a faculty. We shouldn’t put huge quantities of hydrogen beside a faculty both.

Hydrogen for constructing warmth. That’s only a weird idea. I simply spent 90 minutes speaking with one of many world’s specialists on pure gasoline in houses, and pure gasoline leaks on a regular basis. He. He’s the chair of the World Carbon Venture, which yearly produces the emissions and budgets for all greenhouse gases, their carbon finances, their methane finances, and now they’ve a hydrogen finances.

And a part of his analysis traditionally has been to measure pure gasoline home equipment in residences to see how a lot methane is being emitted, but in addition what number of different pollution are being emitted. Now, the methane leakage is already vital. Methane slippage from issues that burn methane, you understand, unburnt methane popping out of issues that are theoretically burning it, is sort of excessive, however methane really doesn’t explode that simply. It solely explodes simply sufficient that 4000 buildings a 12 months are considerably broken or destroyed in pure gasoline fires and explosions in the US. Now, 4000 towards a constructing inventory for a rustic of 330,000,000 individuals, possibly that doesn’t sound like a lot, however hydrogen, per the perfect evaluation out there with security measures, could be 4 instances as more likely to have explosions and unsafe situations as methane as a result of the molecule is smaller. You already know, our infrastructure that’s delivering gasoline to houses just isn’t designed for tinier molecules than methane. And hydrogen is simply the Houdini of molecules. It likes to get out of locations. It likes to embrittle stuff.

Equally, hydrogen security, placing 20 diploma Kelvin hydrogen within the fuselage, the place it might be required due to the character of aerodynamic balancing contained in the fuselage with human beings, is only a recipe for a catastrophe. It’s simply very tough to sq. the security of human passengers with liquid hydrogen as a gas. And but persons are severely reporting it. It’s a type of circumstances the place it’s uncertifiable and certification and aviation is essential. So whereas there’s quite a lot of dialogue about it it’s simply not going to occur.

And ammonia as a transport gas. That’s a recipe for catastrophe as properly. Ammonia, which is one nitrogen, three hydrogen, burns cleanly, which is to say it burns with out emitting greenhouse gases, however with numerous nitrous oxides. Ammonia, because it sits, is poisonous to people. And when it mixes with water, which ships are round, it turns right into a extremely corrosive substance, which, if we breathe, will destroy our lungs. After which after that, it turns into a unique substance, which is simply unhealthy for human well being and for wildlife well being. So ammonia as a transport gas, as a hydrogen vitality service, is a non starter. It’s a ship that gained’t float. And it’s simply exceptional to see the quantity of consideration that it will get. So security is a priority and it provides expense.

We will do any of these items with an affordable diploma of security and limitless lack of human life. However it prices an terrible lot greater than options to realize security with these applied sciences, which provides to the dearth of viability, then, for floor transportation, costly, cheaper, inefficient, environment friendly.

Let’s simply take a look at the options right here up right here. Hydrogen gas for trucking. Effectively, hydrogen gas for trucking. As soon as once more, we’re seeing $15 to $35. That’s for grey hydrogen delivered to vans.

The refueling stations in California are an abject lesson. They’ve 55 refueling stations for public automobiles. And people refueling stations as of 2021. I did the evaluation of their highest use, most mature interval that was public report, which was six months in 2021, after 5 to 6 years of operation. And I discovered that the hydrogen refueling stations had been out of service for 2000 extra hours once they had been pumping hydrogen.

Hydrogen refueling stations fail incessantly as a result of it’s exhausting to retailer and pressurize hydrogen. As soon as once more, these compressors go frequently. This provides to the price. The price of delivering hydrogen to refueling stations is a really vital addition to the price. Farming of vitality did a research and stated the price of simply delivering hydrogen by tube truck to a refueling station would add $8 to $10 to the price of the hydrogen. So it doesn’t matter what it prices to make the hydrogen, it doesn’t matter what it prices to pump the hydrogen, and to cope with the price of the low reliability of refueling stations. It’s $8 to $10 per kilogram simply to get the hydrogen to the refueling station. It’s as soon as once more non viable.

Hydrogen buses have related issues. I did an evaluation of California’s bus fleet as a result of they’ve been experimenting with this. There are pockets of irrationality round hydrogen. Their hydrogen buses are 50% much less dependable than their diesel buses and twice as unreliable as their battery electrical buses. Diesel buses will likely be out of service for x hours. A hydrogen bus will likely be out of service for x hours instances 1.5. So one and a half instances the hours out of service as a result of they’re simply not working. Gasoline cells are finicky issues. A gas cell requires pure hydrogen at a selected time, you understand, fairly temperature, with no pollution like water or different substances. It requires pure air. It requires air that’s bone dry and freed from pollution.

Reaching that in a bus or a truck that drives by means of metropolis streets with all of the particulate matter and the entire air air pollution in cities, it has to filter that all the way down to hospital grade working theater air high quality and temperature to ensure that the gas cell to not degrade and fail quickly. Buses in Spain that had been delivered, properly, by accident, some coolant from one other a part of the drivetrain bought into the gas cells and destroyed the gas cells solely. And the buses have by no means moved. So there’s 5 buses, I neglect the town in Spain, it’s not Barcelona, it’s one of many different ones, however they bought buses they usually’re simply sitting there. They’re bricks. This can be a drawback with hydrogen. It’s simply exhausting to make issues work. We will do it, however they’re much less dependable than options. And reliability provides cash.

Hydrogen powered trains, identical factor. I’ve talked about trains, mainly. Overhead wires, batteries for the bits that may’t be achieved. It simply is sensible. India is to this point forward of the remainder of the world, even forward of China on electrifying trains, that I gained’t discuss it.

And naturally, down right here we’ve got the options. Effectively, can we’ve got battery energy vans? Sure, and we do. Can we’ve got battery electrical buses? Sure, and we do. Can we’ve got electrical trains? Sure. And so they’re environment friendly and cheaper. And so, you understand, as soon as once more, it’s a contest. Hydrogen just isn’t the one strategy to do most issues, and it’s actually not the one strategy to do issues in vitality. And each time we ask the query, we’ve got to say, what are the options? Are they economically advantageous? And the reply is all the time sure.

Then there’s maritime transport, one other purported space. So costly, cheaper, viable, unviable. Again to ammonia powered transport. I’ve talked about this. It’s nuts. Then there’s liquid hydrogen powered transport. I’ll say this. I spend quite a lot of time wanting on the maritime business. I spend quite a lot of time speaking to maritime professionals about repowering stuff. I’ve been flown to Glasgow to debate maritime decarbonization. I’ve spoken to individuals on the Maersk McKinney Institute for Maritime Decarbonization. Individuals from the Wallenius group simply interviewed me for what must be achieved round maritime transport. And I’ve bought a projection of maritime transport decarbonization by means of 2100. I’m removed from skilled, however I’m pretty deep on this topic. And the factor I’ll say is a bunch of suppose tanks are speaking about liquid hydrogen and the maritime business is ignoring liquid hydrogen. Yeah, they’re not silly.

They take a look at it and go, wait, you need us to do what with that stuff? And also you need us to energy ships with that? That’s simply foolish, man. Like possibly Maersk does it and we discover out that it’s low cost. However till then, please go away. No person is utilizing liquid hydrogen to energy ships. And but suppose tanks maintain proposing it.

Methanol as a transport gas. Methanol is mainly wooden alcohol. It’s a type of alcohols that for those who drink it, you go blind and die. So don’t try this. And it’s a reasonably widespread industrial substance at this time and a local weather change drawback at this time. And it does burn modified ship engines like an alcohol would. It’s really okay, but it surely’s solely about 45% the vitality density of maritime variable sulfur gas oil. It’s costlier, so it’s competing with options. And the options embody battery powered transport.

Proper now there are a few 700 unit container ships crusing the Yangtze on thousand kilometer routes which might be operating on batteries. They’re batteries in containers which might be winched out of the ship, placed on shore to be charged, plugged in, similar to fridge vehicles. Fridge containers and charged fridge charged battery containers are winched onto the ship and plugged in simply the identical manner fridge containers. Reefers are at this time. And batteries are slowly taking up the underside finish of transport. And so they’re going to all inland transport, most quick sea transport. My projection is that battery hybrid transport with biodiesel will take over your complete area for batteries. We’ll run the ships in ports and nationwide waters to attenuate air air pollution and noise air pollution for all of the residents and the marine life close to shore and crossing oceans. They’ll burn biofuels.

And the biofuel, I count on, will likely be biodiesel. There’s arguments which might be cheap to recommend that we’ll find yourself with methanol, biomethanol as a transport gas, however we actually gained’t find yourself with methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. Biomethanol is less expensive than methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. So we’re not going to finish up utilizing synthesized methanol or any synthesized gas. It simply doesn’t make any sense as a result of it’s costlier and no person’s going to pay extra for one thing which doesn’t do extra. And artificial methanol doesn’t do greater than biologically sourced methanol.

So aviation, costly, cheaper, certifiable, uncertifiable. Now, certifiable doesn’t imply they’re loopy. It doesn’t imply we’re placing them into an asylum to help them to get well their psychological well being, to search out the appropriate temper stabilizers and prescription drugs and discuss remedy to help them to reintegrate with society.

It signifies that operators can fly a licensed machine with human beings within it as a business service, or they’ll fly machines with packages inside them as a business service over locations the place there are individuals. So every part above tiny plane needs to be licensed. Must be licensed by nationwide aviation boards. Most aviation boards globally respect and undertake a certification. If the FAA does it or EASA does it, then many simply respect and undertake these and say the nationwide certification boards undertake these. I’d say if there are any aviation individuals on board from India related to India’s equal of the FAA, you need to actually rethink grandfathering FAA licensed planes as a result of the FAA was captured by Boeing, and it’s only a actual drawback space proper now in aviation. However certification is required, and it’s costly.

It’s an n-times-n course of that claims you need to manufacture, design planes in a sure manner, manufacture planes in a manner that’s secure, after which take a look at all of the failure situations in an n-times-n manner in flight checks to show {that a} airplane gained’t fall over the sky and kill individuals. The Boeing Max disasters that killed tons of of individuals had been a failure of certification as a result of Boeing captured the FAA through the years. However as we undergo these, battery powered aviation is straightforward. We all know the failure situations of batteries and batteries to electrical motors have nearly no transferring components. An n-times-n certification course of for a quite simple plane, like a battery, electrical one is less expensive than a extra advanced one.

Biofuelled aviation simply replaces kerosene that’s used at this time with biologically sourced kerosene that’s really very easy to certify as properly, as a result of it’s only a widespread pathway, the identical molecules, completely different sources, and each main, producer, civil aviation plane, is certifying their planes on certifiable aviation, unsustainable aviation gas that come from biofuels at this time. We similar to, take a look at the widespread carriers. They’re all doing it. We’re bunkering, you understand, hundreds of thousands of tons of biofuel, sustainable aviation fuels at this time.

Now, up right here, efuels. That is artificial kerosene constructed from inexperienced hydrogen after which mixed into making the attributes of kerosene. Kerosene being a type of a classifier of attributes, not an actual particular chemical components. And you are able to do that. It’s simply actually costly. It’s simple to certify as a result of it’s precise, it’s nearly similar to the jet gas that’s used at this time. It’s simply as certifiable as biofuel powered aviation.

However it’s simply going to be actually costly. Biofuels are two to a few instances as costly as present fossil fuels. Normally, e fuels are 4 to 6 instances as costly. And if a service has the choice between, if it’s compelled to pay two to a few instances, that’s one factor, however they’re not going to pay 4 to 6 instances if they’ve a two to a few instances price various. So let me recover from into stuff that simply doesn’t make any sense. Hydrogen gasoline and liquid hydrogen. The failure situations are so excessive and the design transformations for aviation are so excessive to keep away from failure situations resulting from these issues, simply make it a non viable to certify.

I’ll say that the certification individuals should be having a discipline day, as a result of usually they’re over right here in rather well trodden pathways, they’re filling in checklists which were stuffed in tons of and hundreds of instances earlier than. Over right here, every single day they discover a new manner for an airplane to go increase or fall into the sky and kill lots of people, they usually must provide you with checks to validate that it gained’t happen. That’s an thrilling factor for the certifiers to do, which is why the certification companies are spending a lot time on it. However that doesn’t imply it’s going to result in certification for plane. So you may get actually costly, uncertifiable plane, or you may get plane that look lots like those at this time, and battery electrical ones, and get there and clear up the local weather drawback.

So then there’s warmth. I’ll simply say that burning hydrogen to make warmth works. No person does it at this time as a result of it’s actually costly. There’s some stuff you need to change that traits of the flame are completely different. It’s important to change a bunch of stuff. That’s all simply pretty minor engineering, but it surely’s costly. In the meantime, individuals say, what about excessive temperature warmth? Effectively, electrical plasmas, we’ve got the temperature of the solar below our management with commoditized know-how we will ship at this time and combine into warmth. Electrical arc heating, we already use that for metal manufacturing. EMF heating, resistance heating, as much as 600, 800 levels Celsius. I talked to the previous chief technical officer of Kanthal, now the EVP for international enterprise growth, a few years in the past. Yeah, their product is only a resistance heating component that goes to 600 to 800 levels.

Thermal storage, now infrared heating. We’ve district heating and cooling. We’ve warmth pumps. Each single vary of heating may be achieved with electrical energy. It is probably not trivial or cheap to alter one thing which is designed for fossil fuels to run on electrical energy, however all new services must be designed from the bottom as much as run solely on electrical energy. Matter of truth, after I converse to Paul Martin, all of them are. It’s solely when the enterprise case is dedicated that they add gasoline the place it’s essential to make the enterprise case. And in order we transfer ahead right into a decarbonized world and carbon pricing applies to fossil fuels, these applied sciences are all there. They’re all business at this time. They’re all fully dependable, commodified issues. We’re simply not utilizing them as a result of burning fossil fuels and utilizing the ambiance as an open sewer is cheaper. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play right here. It’s simply all the time going to be costlier and lots tougher and lots much less secure than simply utilizing electrical options.

So then grid storage, identical drawback, hydrogen grid storage, it’s “I have a hydrogen molecule. What else can I do with it?” It’s like having a Swiss military knife. Oh, what does this little blade do? Oh, it’s an extended length vitality storage. Yeah, hydrogen for lengthy length vitality storage. Effectively, no, for shorter length storage, we’ve got cell primarily based battery grid storage. Enormous, enormous market nowadays. Very profitable. We’ve redox circulation applied sciences, that are commercializing at this time. I sat on the advisory board of 1. We’ve pumped hydro, which is rising radically.

Within the grid storage dialogue, I identified how huge the useful resource India was beneficial to the ISGF, that they reopen the research into grid storage as a result of off river, closed loop grids, pumped hydro grid storage is very easy to construct and it’s match for goal. Then we’ve got biomethane. We had this massive drawback. A part of the rationale I used to be talking to the top of the worldwide carbon mission, Rob Jackson, this week was as a result of we’re emitting huge quantities of excessive international warming potential methane at this time from our agricultural meals waste stream processes. Rice farming, for instance, India, but in addition meals waste. We throw away a full third of the meals we manufacture yearly that results in landfills or middens, the place it’s piled, decomposes anaerobically and creates methane. So our land administration processes are produced, for instance, beef cattle and ruminants, with their belching of methane from their digestive processes.

Effectively, the methane from that supply is twice as massive because the methane emissions from the fossil gas business, which have been climbing radically. We’ve to attenuate our biomethane as a result of it’s an enormous international warming drawback. And my idea is we simply seize it at level sources like dairy barns and landfills and different stuff, and we fill our strategic pure gasoline reserves with biomethane as an alternative. After which once we want that strategic reserve of gasoline, of vitality, we simply burn biomethane. I believe that makes much more sense than manufacturing hydrogen. But when hydrogen finally ends up being the foolish factor, if individuals begin manufacturing salt caverns and creating, you understand, coping with all that, it’s the. It’s not probably the most urgent drawback.

We’ve applied sciences for every part, besides we’ve bought commercialized, generally used, very dependable applied sciences for every part besides strategic vitality shops for lengthy regional outages of wind and photo voltaic.

This all turns into my hydrogen demand projection by means of 2100. You’ll discover that in contrast to each different hydrogen demand projection you’ve ever seen, it goes down as a result of inexperienced hydrogen is much more costly than unabated grey hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is double the price of unabated present hydrogen. That signifies that because the feedstock price goes up for industrial processes, the place we use it, our expectation of utilizing it, individuals will discover options. There are options to hydrogen in some circumstances. In different circumstances, there are not any options. But when the price goes up, individuals will say, properly, how else can I obtain the identical outcomes? Oh, properly, let’s try this.

However much more, take a look at this massive chunk right here, these two classes. The largest shoppers of hydrogen at this time are oil refineries. They use it to strip impurities out of hydrogen, like sulfur. And so they additionally use it to crack hydrogen into, or crack crude oil into lighter and heavier parts. The heavier and the upper sulfur, the crude, which is to say Alberta oil sands crude, the extra hydrogen you need to use. For gentle, candy crude, you need to use a kilogram or a kilogram and a half per barrel of oil, for Alberta’s product you need to use seven or 8 kilograms per barrel of oil. We’re going to cease extracting and refining quite a lot of our oil. We’re going to get all the way down to solely extracting oil for petrochemicals. And the petrochemicals, the oil we’re going to extract is generally going to be lighter, low sulfur, as a result of we’ve got numerous oil.

So we’re not going to be consuming practically as a lot hydrogen in oil refineries. And that’s going to occur pretty shortly. The heaviest, lowest high quality crudes, like Venezuela’s and Alberta’s, will likely be first off the market. In order that’s going to plummet. That is fertilizer, the subsequent greatest demand space. And we’ve got options for lots of fertilizer. Low tillage agriculture requires much less fertilizer. Drone primarily based crop spraying of fertilizers requires lots much less fertilizer. Agrigenetics is displacing fertilizer additions with genetically modified microbes, which exist already within the soil, which already repair nitrogen within the soil for vegetation. However they’ve a nitrogen sensor. They simply flip off the nitrogen sensor, and it simply retains making extra nitrogen on the roots of vegetation. It’s very environment friendly.

Final time I spoke to Karsten Temme, the PhD geneticist who heads Pivot Bio, they had been on the level the place they had been seeing 1,000,000 acres of corn below administration in the US, they usually’re lowering fertilizer necessities by 25%. Their objective is 100% throughout rice, corn, and grain by 2030, stretch goal, however a very good sound chunk. So we’re going to be pulling all these levers, as a result of fertilizer goes to get costlier as we decarbonize fertilizer, an enormous local weather drawback at this time as a result of it’s constructed from pure gasoline. Pure gasoline turns into hydrogen. We put the hydrogen into the Haber Bosch course of to mix with air from the ambiance to make ammonia to make fertilizer. We’re going to scale back that. So vital declining calls for within the greatest supply demand areas for hydrogen.

Metal is a possible space. I’ve at present bought it there. Making hydrogen, making new metal with hydrogen. Effectively, the hydrogen replaces coal in lowering the iron ore, which de rusts it mainly into iron. That’s all it does. And there’s a requirement level there. However we’ve got options there which might be direct electrification, Boston Metals and Fortescue utilizing molten oxide electrolysis obtain the identical outcomes with no hydrogen step. And mainly anywhere the place they cannot use hydrogen, as we’ve got an alternative choice to hydrogen, we’re most likely going to make use of it. It needs to be cheaper. And so proper now I’ve elevated demand for hydrogen for metal making in my projection, however that’s in danger. In the long run recreation I believe we’re solely going to have 80 million tons of hydrogen that we use in our economic system, versus the below 120 million tons that we use at this time.

We nonetheless have to scrub it up. It’s nonetheless an enormous local weather drawback space. We nonetheless want all of the work on electrolysis for this market of costly hydrogen.

That’s it. Let’s discuss. Any questions, Reji?

RK: I’d request you to offer the newest standing of the introduced inexperienced hydrogen initiatives and patrons, the dedicated patrons and what timber, what share of whole initiatives that are financially near initiatives that are below some stage of growth or development, and who’ve signed as much as purchase the inexperienced hydrogen. At what worth? What statistics do you’ve?

MB: So a 12 months in the past, Boston Consulting Group revealed with Oxford World Tasks a type of a white paper on methods to make inexperienced hydrogen initiatives as low danger as doable. Not low danger, simply decrease danger. And so they included a bunch of statistics, about 1300 initiatives that Boston Consulting Group had of their database. These 1300 initiatives, I believe it was solely 0.7% by tonnage really reached ultimate funding choice and operation. It was solely 5% by variety of bulletins, however solely 0.7% by tonnages really reached ultimate funding choice. So we don’t have a state of affairs the place they’re getting by means of, as a result of as they undergo ultimate funding choice, due diligence, they really must put actual numbers into spreadsheets, not imaginary consensus numbers about low cost hydrogen.

They really have to truly price stuff. After which once they try this, they discover out that hydrogen is pricey, which we’ve recognized for a very long time. I simply assisted Professor Joe Romm, who’s working with Michael Mann at College of Pennsylvania with the twentieth version of his e book, The Hype About Hydrogen. Joe Romm did his work 25 years in the past and stated, why would we be contemplating this? It’s all the time going to be costly. Bruce McCabe, one other PhD out of Australia, did this work 25 years in the past and stated, that is actually costly. As I stated, I’m a gradual scholar. I’ve solely achieved the maths on this up to now decade, taking a look at achieved techno financial workups on hydrogen options for the previous ten years. And each time I do it, hydrogen comes out actually costly.

The worth level is attention-grabbing. Boston Consulting Group additionally revealed one thing saying, the consensus of €3 per kilogram inexperienced hydrogen in Europe by 2030 is popping out to not be appropriate. It is going to really be €5 to €8 per kilogram. And I agree it’ll be €6 to €8 to fabricate hydrogen. However that’s not delivering it, that’s simply making it. And so, as soon as once more, each time we’ve got to retailer it, each time we’ve got to move it, each time we’ve got to pump it, the price goes up and up. Security stuff provides prices. So once we hear the price level for hydrogen, you need to ask, is it, what’s the price delivered? And the perfect price delivered for shopper functions, for hydrogen, is what’s being paid at gasoline pumps around the globe, which is $15 to $35 per kilogram. And that’s for grey hydrogen.

It’s not going to get cheaper than that common worth level. For all of the offers that had been really struck final 12 months, to Reji’s level, the typical worth level was €9.35 euro cents per kilogram. And that, as soon as once more, simply to fabricate it.

Okay, we’ve got one other query. Please clarify why hydrogen use serves fossil pursuits. It’s the title of the presentation, so I’m glad you requested. Michael Liebreich says it greatest. The fossil gas business can’t lose by selling hydrogen for vitality, both. Hydrogen for vitality turns into a serious a part of our vitality combine, and we will’t make sufficient inexperienced hydrogen in any respect, as a result of it might require vastly extra renewables than we’ve got at this time, which might require blue hydrogen, then the fossil gas reserves that the fossil gas business has is the one supply of all that hydrogen.

And with a view to try this in a considerably low carbon manner, considerably probably not, they’d must do carbon seize and the governments must pay them so as to add carbon seize to their hydrogen manufacture. So that they win that manner and their hydrocarbon reserves are good and governments and taxpayers give them numerous cash. Or the opposite manner they win is that they delay actual local weather motion with electrification by one other decade they usually maintain pumping their oil, coal and gasoline for one more decade with out actual motion. It’s an apparent technique for them. As you take a look at the funding for hydrogen advocacy organizations, what you discover is the fossil gas business is throughout this area. They’re selling hydrogen far past its stage of capability. Do we’ve got different questions? I do know Puranima Gupta has had their hand up. I’m undecided in the event that they’ve put a query into chat.

What about mixing hydrogen in with pure gasoline and current pipelines? This is without doubt one of the nice hopes of the business. We’re going to place methane, we’re going to place pure gasoline into current pure gasoline pipelines after which we’re going to scale back the CO2 output of burning pure gasoline. And it’s going to be nice. Effectively, it’s not. The utmost you’ll be able to put into pipelines is about 20%, however hydrogen is lots much less dense than pure gasoline, so you find yourself with much less vitality at extra price. You solely get a few 7% carbon emissions discount from the utmost combination of pure gasoline with hydrogen. In order that’s drawback one. Downside two, pure gasoline already leaks during the distribution system. And the older the distribution system is, the extra it leaks.

Amusingly, I used to be speaking with, as soon as once more, the gentleman who chairs the World Carbon Venture. And he spent fairly a little bit of time in vehicles driving round Boston, Manhattan and Washington with methane sensors searching for leaks. What they discovered is the older components of the town that had been probably the most gentrified with probably the most wealthy individuals had the very best leaks. So it was fairly counterintuitive that it wasn’t an inequitable state of affairs because it usually was. It simply leaks lots. Now, why I convey this up is methane leaks lots lower than hydrogen. So once you put hydrogen with pure gasoline in a pipeline, any leaks that exist are going to disproportionately leak the hydrogen. And who pays for all of the leaking pure gasoline at this time? Effectively, shoppers do. It’s undelivered gasoline. It’s a part of the expense that utility passes on.

So all that costly hydrogen that goes in with the pure gasoline will likely be rather more costly, it’ll leak much more and also you’ll pay much more. So it’s simply mainly a lifeless finish. It’s fairly fascinating. So current metal pipelines, can we use the prevailing metal pipeline community for hydrogen transportation or do we want some modifications usually? Sure, you want modifications. You are able to do these modifications. The factor with hydrogen is as a result of it needs to be increased strain to ship much less quantity, as a result of as soon as once more, it’s lots much less dense as a gasoline. It’s important to pressurize it lots. And pressurizing causes the pipes to flex. Because the pipes flex, we’ve got micro fractures within the weld joints of the pipes.

Hydrogen does what methane doesn’t, which is it will get into these weld joints and it bonds with the metals and it embrittles them. And so we’ve got to truly cut back our pressurization. We will solely get a few third of the vitality by means of the identical pipeline with security. Now we will get a bit extra by coating the insides. We’ve to coat the insides of all of the pipelines with reasonably costly inner coatings. We’ve to run pigs down them, spray them, take a look at them, and that’s simply to get to the purpose the place we will ship a 3rd of the vitality so we will do it. However as soon as once more, rather more costly than piping pure gasoline, and it requires modifications. And the subsequent bit is all these compressors which might be used on the pure gasoline pipelines aren’t match for goal for a hydrogen pipeline.

They as soon as once more want increased strain compressors with higher matches. In any other case they’ll leak hydrogen like sieves. So all of the compressors on the pure gasoline pipeline have to get replaced after which all of the electronics. Methane doesn’t assault electronics. Hydrogen is de facto reactive. It assaults electronics. You really must get a unique licensed set of sensors and electronics in your hydrogen pipeline than exist on the methane pipeline. So it’s not a slam dunk. You possibly can’t simply say, I’ve bought a pipe, I’ve bought pumps. I’ll simply put hydrogen as an alternative of pure gasoline. You have got change all of your compressors. It’s important to improve all of your electronics. It’s important to coat the within of the pipeline. And guess what? That every one provides price to ship much less vitality. It’s not a slam dunk. Every other questions?

RK: Madam Puranima Gupta was asking, she remains to be not clear how hydrogen just isn’t good to decarbonize? It’s good to decarbonize, offered you may make it cheaper to different applied sciences and in addition the difficulties about storing it and transporting it and total vitality. Inefficient answer is what Michael defined within the earlier slide. So the webinar recording will likely be out there in simply two days to all of the individuals who registered. Thanks very a lot, Michael. Good day to you.

MB: Effectively, I’ll add one level to that remark. It’s completely essential to decarbonize all of the hydrogen that we at present use and can proceed to make use of for the subsequent a long time as industrial feedstocks. Proper now, that’s a local weather drawback we’ve got to unravel. Inexperienced hydrogen is the reply to it, and that signifies that we’ve got to try this. However that’s the local weather, that’s the decarbonization answer we’ve got to work on for hydrogen, which is lowering it from an issue the dimensions of all aviation globally all the way down to one thing that’s not the dimensions of all aviation globally. So decarbonization and hydrogen don’t consider it as an answer set. Consider it as an issue space that we’ve got to unravel. So that might be the factor. Again to you, Reji.

RK: Thanks. Good day. Good night. Good evening to all of the individuals from India Asia area. Good evening.