Shutting Down Coal & Gasoline By Steps, Slides, & Substitutions – India Utilities Seminar Transcript & Slides – CleanTechnica – Uplaza

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Beneath the auspices of the India Sensible Grid Discussion board, the suppose tank based as an umbrella group over India’s 28 state utilities to supply thought management, share main practices, and convey worldwide insights to India, I’m delivering bi-weekly webinars framed by the Brief Record of Local weather Actions That Will Work. With the glories of on-line recordings and AI transcription instruments, it’s comparatively straightforward to share each the transcript and the slides that I used, so I’m making a behavior of it.

 

Reji Pillai (RP): Good morning, good afternoon, good night, welcome you all to the seventh version of this webinar sequence right this moment. Sadly, I’m in an airport, so I’ll preserve my video shut and my speech additionally very brief. As most of you already know, greater than 120 nations have declared their web zero goal, various from 2045 to 2070. However only a few of them have a roadmap for shutting down their fossil gasoline energy era vegetation. In order that is likely one of the main milestones for attaining web zero. Nevertheless, persons are not India. We’ve got a web zero goal of 2070. So we have now been arguing that with a view to obtain web zero by 2070, the ability sector must be web zero by 2050. So there are lots of new energy vegetation, I imply outdated energy vegetation which should be shut down. There was completely different dialogues occurring at completely different ranges.

However within the final two 5-year plans, we didn’t plan lots of the coal vegetation. And the final genuine report, which I find out about, is about 8000 megawatts of latest coal vegetation will likely be inbuilt states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, etcetera, to stabilize renewable era, which they’re presently dealing with main points. So this was the situation until two months in the past. Within the final month, there are such a lot of coordinates. We hear a couple of new goal. Someone talks about 28,000 megawatts of latest coal era. Someone talks about 80,000 megawatts of coal era. So 80, when it got here, I assumed it was a spelling error. I imply, say, error. 8000 is misspelled as 80,000. However this renewed vigor in new coal vegetation India is one thing actually worrying. And we don’t know what’s genuine and official, however there’s no phrase from the ministries or anyplace.

However there may be lots of discuss occurring. And the identical is the case with many different nations. On one aspect, we’ve been speaking about web zero and transferring utterly to renewables and inexperienced power. And on the opposite aspect, coal is having a brand new lease of life. So Michael has performed intensive analysis on this space and he will likely be presenting to you ways it’s economically, environmentally useful to maneuver to renewables and storage. Over to you, Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks Reji, and thanks to the ISGF, as at all times, for having me. I’m privileged to have the ability to share my perspective, to help India to string the needle between growing affluence and bringing the rest of your residents out of poverty and in addition attaining local weather objectives, each of that are important. And it’s potential for this subject. I’ll say this very clearly. I’m from a rustic with among the many highest emissions per capita on the planet and so they’re not happening. Significantly after I discuss to folks in creating nations, I’m not saying shut off all coal, don’t construct coal. That’s not the story. It’s way more nuanced than that. And so let’s step by it after which we’ll have a very good dialogue on the finish.

First off, there’s a extremely fascinating level, which is coal kills, fuel kills, and oil era kills, they principally are actually problematic. They’re additionally very excessive emissions. Whereas they’ve advantages of offering electrical energy, which powers hospitals and powers trade and stuff like that, they arrive with very vital downsides on either side of the ledger and direct and oblique influence. I did the mathematics just a few years in the past, and the USA coal fleet, for instance, killed a median of 80 folks a 12 months for every coal plant. It was only a horrific dying toll for what it was.

And I actually keep in mind Duke Vitality within the southeastern United States, the place they have been complaining about having placed on extra photo voltaic, however they have been burning lots of pure fuel. The pure fuel add was creating smog, which is creating childhood bronchial asthma and impacting folks with weak cardiovascular techniques.

Clearly, we begin seeing down right here that the applied sciences of the long run are way more virtuous, each by way of inhabitants well being and by way of local weather change. So no matter anything, shifting radically to realize decarbonized power has a number of advantages.

Let’s step by some examples of what’s been occurring now. These trajectories are for CO2 emissions from coal since 1990 and CO2 emissions from fuel era since 1990. Clearly, since 1990 is the baseline for eager to decarbonize. Clearly, we’re not doing an excellent job of that. However I want to level out that the worldwide GDP and reduce in poverty since 1990 in main nations like India and China and Brazil has been extraordinary.

So the expansion in emissions has not been as unhealthy because it might be, I assume, is the best way to explain it. And there’s a lot of hope on the goal. I’ll say that this blip upwards prior to now few years is worrisome, however I believe that’s going to show down, and I’ll share why.

Now, as we have a look at that, there’s a unique approach to lower this knowledge. And by the best way, I apologize, within the sense that that is knowledge I assembled over the previous couple of days for this presentation. And so perhaps it’s imperfect from public sources. Don’t quote it as particular. That’s why there’s no strains on the charts. That’s why there’s no numbers on a few of these charts. They’re correct sufficient for this dialogue.

However as we have a look at this, what we see is share of electrical energy from coal and fuel for main economies of the USA, Europe, China and India. What we are able to see is that Europe since 1990 has truly fairly considerably dropped the share of electrical energy that it generates with pure fuel and coal. So that’s truly very constructive. They’re a world chief on many fronts, and they’re virtuously making an attempt and so they’re virtuously succeeding. So if you must emulate anyone, look to Europe. Now, the USA likes to make the declare that it’s diminished its CO2 emissions fairly considerably and claims advantage by shutting down coal. However actually, you’ll see that this can be a pretty flat line. They’re nonetheless producing an terrible lot of electrical energy. They’ve simply changed coal with pure fuel.

And to be clear, that solves a few of the well being issues, however it doesn’t resolve the local weather downside, as a result of the USA methane emissions leakage from their oil and fuel trade is the best on the planet. Their rules upon the trade have been lax and their engineering was lax, and consequently, it leaks like a sieve. And the carbon dioxide equal emissions from methane have utterly changed the discount in carbon dioxide from coal. It’s not a terrific story. So changing coal with pure fuel will not be a slam dunk.

As India considers its coal sooner or later and is contemplating LNG imports, that are way more costly, be actually cautious, particularly as we’ve seen that LNG engines have vital methane slippage, vastly larger than fashions had anticipated. After we’ve performed the research, LNG imports are literally fairly excessive carbon dioxide or equal emissions.

So China, alternatively, had a reasonably excessive share of electrical energy generated from coal. However now, because it’s hammering in renewables, you’ll see its curve may be very constructive. We’re truly seeing now the advantages of China’s huge renewables proliferation. They’re now approaching seven gigawatts of capability every week between wind and photo voltaic. It’s a fairly extraordinary tempo of deployment, and that’s positively one thing that India must be emulating. If you wish to emulate one thing out of China, hammer in much more renewables.

Now, India is an fascinating one. It’s been pretty secure, however it’s been trending upward. So regardless of the concentrate on renewables, prior to now decade, India has been constructing extra coal whereas it’s growing the consumption of electrical energy within the nation. That’s a worrisome development as a result of wind and photo voltaic at the moment are so low-cost. I used to be considerably shocked by that.

To Reji’s level, that appears to be one thing that India is leaning on much more closely, at the same time as the remainder of the world is declining by way of its coal use. The well being impacts of coal can’t be understated. That has vital implications on productiveness of your workforce. It has vital implications on the price of healthcare within the nation. And it has, in fact, the problem of so many individuals dying after which leaving bereaved kin and family members. Gasoline is healthier than that, however it’s not that a lot better. However there are some options.

Now, right here’s a approach to consider coal. So these are common coal capability components. The share of the 12 months, as you’ll see over right here, traditionally, have been fairly excessive. Coal vegetation would run 75% of the hours of the 12 months, or 70% of the hours of the 12 months. And that might be form of in that baseload mannequin, and be turned off solely as mandatory, just for upkeep, solely when demand was applicable.

However what we see is that on this interval, we’re seeing considerably declining capability components for coal vegetation. What which means is that coal vegetation at the moment are getting used as versatile era to allow and stability renewables. Should you have a look at China, they’re now down at 50% or so capability components on their coal vegetation, and so they’re operating them because the era of final resort. If there’s wind, photo voltaic, or nuclear or hydro out there, they use that. After which provided that they want coal do they flip it on. And they also’re engineering for that. That’s the suitable alternative. I anticipate to see this line within the subsequent few years decline fairly considerably.

We’ll discuss a bit in regards to the implications of that as we transfer ahead. As we have a look at another nations like the USA, you see fairly a considerable progress in coal era by 2010. After which they’ve their a lot lauded decline of coal. So we see approaching 75% capability components in 2009 or so, however now they’re down at 40%. That’s the appropriate trajectory. And to be clear, they’ve additionally shut down lots of coal vegetation. In order that’s a constructive assertion for the well being of individuals in the USA.

As I stated, they changed it with pure fuel. And as you see, that is the one pure fuel line on the chart. They went from 20% capability components for pure fuel, used solely as peaking reserve and day forward reserve. Now they’re up at very excessive capability components for pure fuel, over 50%, 58%, as a result of they’re utilizing it the best way they used to make use of coal. They constructed huge quantities of pure fuel and so they’re utilizing it loads, and so they’re leaking lots of methane. So if anyone from the USA tells you they’re virtuous due to pure fuel or shutting down coal, the story is way more nuanced there.

As we get into Europe, they’ve loads much less capability within the type of pure fuel than the USA did. They construct loads much less of it. Since 1990, they’ve been decreasing the capability components of their coal vegetation to among the many lowest on the planet. They usually’ve additionally been shutting down coal vegetation. So as soon as once more, constructive statements, constructive ongoing efforts from Europe, and so they’re not changing coal with pure fuel to the extent the USA did.

As we have a look at India, what we see is India’s industrial sector was pretty restricted in 1990 by comparability to China or the west. Nonetheless vital trade in Gujarat and different locations. However over time, by the 2000s, what we noticed may be very vital will increase in electrical energy demand, per the info I’ve, as India’s financial increase was beginning. However even there, even India, what you’re seeing is a really vital decline in capability components.

Slightly little bit of an uptick prior to now 12 months, however nonetheless what we’re seeing is under historic ranges, it’s under the height ranges. That’s the appropriate trajectory and anticipate that to proceed. Everyone is aware of that you just don’t wish to burn coal should you don’t must. India goes to must burn lots of coal over the subsequent 20 or 30 years, however it’s not almost as a lot as traditionally, as a result of it’s not baseload anymore. This chart is strongly indicative that the paradigm of base load era from coal or another know-how is admittedly taking part in out globally precisely the identical approach. Everyone is treating fossil gasoline era as era of final resort and utilizing it as declining capability components.

So there some levers to tug as you progress ahead. The primary one, in fact, is to construct a number of wind, photo voltaic, storage, and transmission. This isn’t rocket science. I gained’t dwell on it an excessive amount of. However each research that’s been performed says each megawatt hour of electrical energy that we get out of wind, photo voltaic, and water eliminates a megawatt hour of electrical energy from coal, fuel or oil. These are very virtuous statements. It doesn’t actually matter about anything so long as you’re hammering it as a lot as potential. Clearly, India must do what everyone else besides China must do, which is speed up its deployment of renewables. Everyone on the planet is lagging by way of deployment of renewables, besides China, as a result of it figured it out, and it figured it out 10 or 15 years in the past. Created the nationwide strategic objective to be a worldwide chief in these applied sciences, and that’s paying home and worldwide dividends now.

However I’m not saying that Europe is constructing sufficient, I’m not saying North America is constructing sufficient. I’m simply saying India must considerably enhance its build-out of this stuff with a view to obtain true zero emissions and to proceed decreasing the capability issue of coal vegetation.

The subsequent lever that I’d like to speak about is shutting down the coal vegetation the place there are many folks. Because the 2010 Olympics have been rising in Beijing, there was simply lots of press globally in regards to the air high quality in Beijing. It was among the many worst on the planet. The US embassy, for some time, very cheekily, was truly publishing the PMQ counts from their air screens on prime of their embassy. That was truly was a little bit of a minor diplomatic incident.

The federal government was this and going, this can be a black eye. And additional, China will not be a democracy, as India is, however all governments rule on the will of their folks. The way in which that they put a gloss on it in China is that numerous empires misplaced the mandate of heaven. And what that basically means is that they dominated so badly that the populace stated, you must go. And ultimately they went. And that’s occurred 5 – 6 occasions over the historical past of China, at numerous occasions. Air high quality in China was a kind of mandate of heaven issues. As was extra not too long ago the lockdown, late within the COVID cycle, they have been dropping the mandate of heaven, the need of the folks.

Within the 2000s, they have been placing colleges inside tennis domes with filtered air. In 2014, my firm wished me to maneuver to Beijing and I stated, my spouse and I like strolling exterior and we are able to’t in Beijing as a result of it the air was so unhealthy. What they did is that they stated, one of many many issues they did was they stated, properly, all of the coal vegetation in and instantly round Beijing are going to close down. That meant that every one the large well being impacts of these coal vegetation diminished considerably. Now they’re in parallel constructing different stuff elsewhere. But in addition the factor about coal vegetation in developed areas, incessantly, they’re the oldest coal vegetation, they’re the worst, they’re the dirtiest.

As they shut down these coal vegetation and changed them, in lots of circumstances, the supercritical coal vegetation, they considerably decreased the CO2 emissions from coal and considerably diminished the well being impacts of coal. So an excellent concept is assessing the place your coal vegetation are and assessing the place you propose to place them to keep away from that.

Now there’s one other lever, and I’m simply going to speak about Ontario. Ontario’s one of many locations I contemplate house. I lived there for approaching half my life in a number of stints. I’m going to be there subsequent week. Ravi, who’s on the decision, is in Toronto proper now. I contemplate it my house. I’ve lived in lots of elements of it. However one of many causes I left in 1999 is as a result of the air in Toronto was so unhealthy.

The air in Toronto was so unhealthy as a result of we used lots of coal era and we had automobile emissions, however the coal era was the actual downside. So the federal government on the time, the Liberals beneath McGuinty, stated, you already know what? For local weather causes and public well being causes, we decide to shutting down coal. They usually stated, we’re going to do it in ten or eleven years. They dedicated to do it by 2013, I consider. They usually regulated that. They stated, that is what you’re going to do. Ontario era organizations determine methods to exchange that. Now, Ontario has a major nuclear fleet. It’s the one province in Canada that has a major nuclear fleet. Roughly 45% to 55% of its electrical energy comes from nuclear energy in any given 12 months. That was a bonus.

It additionally has huge hydro amenities as a result of have a look at all this water. It’s referred to as the land of a thousand undiscovered lakes. I at all times marvel who counted the undiscovered lakes. The purpose there may be that it had benefits. It’s huge, with a number of particularly two kinds of power. And the McGuinty authorities introduced in a coverage of a number of wind and photo voltaic, and that helped loads as properly. Now, in 2013, once they lastly managed to close down the final coal plant, they went from 55 unhealthy air days a 12 months. And that’s unhealthy. Don’t train exterior. Should you’ve received coronary heart and lung issues, don’t go exterior in any respect. Unhealthy air days. They went from 55 a 12 months to zero. Now, prior to now couple of years, we’ve had wildfire smoke in Toronto and Montreal that has created unhealthy air days.

A variety of that was on account of burning coal globally. However the air in Toronto and the air in Montreal is far more healthy than it was once. And so Toronto did that regulation. They subsequent put into legislation that made it legally inconceivable to construct extra coal. They didn’t simply regulate, they made it a legislation. And so any authorities who needs to return to the unhealthy outdated days for no matter motive, doesn’t have that chance. That was 37 million tons decrease coal emissions and nil unhealthy air days. Everyone was respiratory extra simply.

Lever 4, exchange the worst vegetation. Each time you shut down an outdated subcritical plant and exchange it with a brand new supercritical plant otherwise you shut down a lignite burning plant and exchange it with a bitumen burning plant, you’re decreasing the impacts of coal era.

Whereas China will get lots of unhealthy press for the variety of coal vegetation it’s constructing, what doesn’t get acknowledged is what number of they’ve shut down. As we have a look at this, after I did this evaluation final 12 months, utilizing the World Vitality Monitor knowledge for China, they’d 1100 working gigawatts of capability of coal vegetation. However they’d shelved, retired, mothballed or canceled 775 gigawatts of capability. Now retired and mothballed simply means they really shut the plant down fully. An working plant, shut down fully. Or they’ve determined that the introduced pre allow or permitted plant was not going to go ahead, for development or allowing. They only canceled it. They stated, we don’t want this, we’re not going to do that. So a bunch of the permitted vegetation ended up right here. A bunch of working vegetation ended up right here. They made that alternative.

What China is doing very intelligently is ensuring that what coal it burns is burning in supercritical vegetation, which have about 60% of the carbon dioxide emissions per megawatt-hour. And it’s burning bitumen wherever potential as a substitute of lignite, in order that they get the advantages of that. They’re additionally washing their coal way more rigorously. And the subsequent piece. A part of the implications of coal mercury within the surroundings comes from most extra mercury within the surroundings, which causes mind harm and organ failures and madness in many individuals. Most of that comes from burning coal. Sulfur in coal is what was contributing to acid rain. And they also’re consciously constructing a lot better coal the place they construct it, and so they’re intelligently shutting down the worst vegetation. That is one thing for India to consider as we transfer ahead. I’ve a advantage order for Gujarat vegetation I’ll share on the finish of this.

The subsequent lever is pricing carbon. Alberta you would possibly know, as a result of that’s the place Canada’s oil sands are. The oil sands are the best emissions sector in Canada. The emissions from the oil sands in Alberta and the oil and fuel trade in Saskatchewan have gone up fairly a bit. So every part else that Canada has performed, together with Ontario shutting down coal over the previous 20 years, have been swamped by the will increase in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Once I talked about the USA being virtuous for shutting down coal after which not being virtuous as a result of they only changed it with excessive emissions pure fuel, properly, Canada did a fairly good job in different elements of the nation. And we failed miserably by way of Alberta and Saskatchewan for related causes to the challenges that India faces.

The oil and fuel trade is 5-6% of the Canadian economic system. It’s troublesome for politicians of any stripe to say, we’re going to eliminate 5% of our gross home product. It’s going to occur whether or not we prefer it or not. However Canada is making a few of those self same decisions. Once I speak about Ontario being virtuous and Alberta, we aren’t virtuous both. Our emissions haven’t come down. Now, in Alberta, they really elected a smart, centrist authorities at one level. In 2015, they’d very soiled electrical energy. It was 800 or 900 grams of CO2 e per kilowatt hour. So nearly a ton per megawatt-hour. That’s up within the stage of, you already know, above the extent of supercritical coal.

That’s how unhealthy it was. And lots of their era was from coal. A variety of it was from mixed cycle, mixed warmth and energy vegetation that have been used for oil extraction on one aspect and electrical energy for the grid on the opposite aspect. And the federal government on the time stated, properly, we have now to eliminate coal, no less than. And they also made a dedication to part it out by 2030. As I stated on the time, that’s eleven out of ten for Alberta, as a result of it was an amazingly progressive coverage, and 7 out of 11 for the local weather, as a result of I assumed they may do it in ten years. I assumed they may do it by 2025.

But in addition in 2015, the federal authorities that enacted the federal carbon value got here in, and it applies to coal era or different mechanisms that needed to be put in place in provinces to equate to that. They needed to be very cautious about how they did that. They added prices to coal. I labored it out. By 2030, with Canada’s will increase in our carbon value, the carbon value, if utilized to the coal, can be 4 occasions the price of the coal itself, coal being very low-cost. So $40 a ton of coal, it’d be $120 per ton of coal burned simply from the carbon value. That was a really vital impetus. Now, as we transfer ahead, these coal vegetation in Alberta simply stated, properly, we are able to’t become profitable this fashion.

After all, Alberta was placing in wind and photo voltaic, till not too long ago, that was a really smart exercise they have been doing in Alberta, the place they’ve received huge, flat plains, and it’s fairly straightforward to string out transmission strains round a giant, flat, underpopulated plain. From an India perspective, simply consider Alberta as having a inhabitants of one in every of your tiniest cities. There are, I feel, 4 million folks in the whole huge province. As we transfer ahead, the coal plant stated properly we are able to’t make any cash, we are able to’t afford to function. And they also did some work and so they made some changes and so they made some agreements and the coal homeowners received purchased out successfully and the final coal plant shut this month. Alberta is now coal-free. Its emissions have halved. Now carbon dioxide emissions from electrical era are half of what they have been solely 9 years in the past.

In order that’s one other approach to do it. The carbon value began impacting earnings and that created the aggressive benefit. Meaning extra folks spend money on wind, photo voltaic, storage, and transmission as a substitute of coal. You’re pricing the adverse externality. As I talked about in my earlier lecture on Pigouvian carbon pricing approaches, it makes the economics change in a predictable approach so that individuals can then make strategic choices about methods to obtain what they want.

And so we get to Gujarat. I spent a while getting what I consider is the total checklist of coal facility coal era vegetation in Gujarat. As soon as once more if I missed one or have some inaccurate knowledge from the general public knowledge I had out there to me, my apologies. I created an preliminary course advantage order for Gujarat’s coal vegetation.

What I stated is what know-how are they utilizing? Is it supercritical or subcritical? Supercritical scores excessive. Subcritical scores low. So I simply did a one to 5 ranking easy unweighted standards scheme and the grade of coal. Is it operating lignite coal? That’s a nasty rating. Is it operating imported bituminous coal due to the emissions that carry alongside the provision chain that’s larger emissions as properly. That was form of a medium rating. Bituminous coal was ranked excessive as a result of bituminous coal is essentially the most environment friendly and the bottom CO2 per ton of coal burned. It’s not nice, it’s removed from nice however it’s higher than the options.

Then megawatts of capability. Large vegetation which can be producing lots of power are loads tougher to interchange than small vegetation. So small vegetation and also you’ve received some vegetation which can be within the 200-230 megawatt vary. You have got some vegetation which can be some amenities which can be within the 4 gigawatt vary. So as soon as once more only a advantage order of scale of plant indicating that measurement. Now the final one is a constructed up space. If the vegetation are in a constructed up space and three of the vegetation, per my public knowledge are, properly then they’re creating much more adverse well being impacts.

This can be a coarse measure. What we are able to see is these vegetation over right here are usually small. They are usually extra in built-up areas. One, two, and three of them in constructed up areas.

These vegetation that don’t meet this standards must be changed, if potential, with supercritical vegetation burning bitumen, bituminous coal. In the event that they’re in a built-up space, simply shut down and a brand new plant constructed exterior of the built-up space. This can be a extra nuanced approach of it. Coal is a mandatory evil. However we are able to diminish the quantity of adverse impacts of it with supercritical coal, with excessive grade coal, with higher washed coal, and by preserving it away from folks as a lot as potential.

This does require constructing some transmission and constructing some storage. However you’re constructing transmission and storage anyway. I’ll say that lots of coal amenities now are being repurposed with storage and many photo voltaic. As a lot as they’ll pack into the house. And that’s one thing critically to contemplate for the locations you shut down.

However eliminating these coal vegetation considerably reduces the adverse externalities in Gujarat. And since the era is comparatively low, it’s comparatively straightforward to interchange these ones over right here that aren’t. The 4 gigawatt vegetation aren’t in built-up areas so far as I do know. They usually’re operating supercritical coal. They’re essentially the most trendy amenities with the bottom emissions. Is sensible for these to persist the longest.

One of many suggestions of this materials is to create the advantage order based mostly upon all of those components. Solely allow new vegetation that rating excessive, supercritical, bituminous away from folks, huge capacities, get essentially the most effectivity you’ll be able to out of them, after which anticipate them to have diminishing capability components.

So that is simply form of a perspective. This can be a thought experiment. At what level does a coal plant cease getting cash? That’s a part of what occurred with the coal vegetation in Alberta, however it additionally occurred in Europe, in Denmark, they have been producing with lots of coal. Now, Denmark, as you might know, is legendary as a result of it’s the house of Vestas, one of many world’s most progressive main wind turbine manufacturing firms. And it has been for the reason that eighties. It’s simply superb historical past there. They usually’re incessantly at 150% to 160% of demand met from wind on any given day, and so they’re properly into the excessive percentages. 20 years in the past, they already realized their coal vegetation have been problematic as a result of they wanted the capability for flexibility, however they wanted them at low capability components, the personal firm, beneath regular market guidelines, wouldn’t agree to really function them. They only say, properly, we are able to’t become profitable, so we’re going to exit.

In order the capability components decline, sooner or later earnings get under a stage the place personal trade is remotely . I’ve notionally pegged it at 5% or 6% earnings, simply notionally as a thought train. And under that they’ll simply shut the vegetation down. However you want the vegetation by 2050 to have some capability in reserve, simply because as you construct up wind, photo voltaic and storage, ultimately you’ll simply be utilizing fossil gasoline era much less and fewer. However you continue to want it round. You don’t need folks in New Delhi to lose air-con throughout the summertime. That’s only a recipe for catastrophe. So you must preserve grid reliability excessive, you must preserve electrical energy there.

So it’s essential create a funding mechanism. Now, Denmark, they nationalized their coal vegetation and so they handled them as a governmental expense for capability. That’s what they did. Within the UK, they explicitly have a capability market the place folks bid to supply capability, and pumped hydro, for instance, is beneath that mannequin. So pumped hydro has truly received capability markets within the UK, and coal vegetation can have capability markets as properly. These are annualized capability. Simply the flexibility to activate and ship electrical energy when it’s required has worth on grids. I don’t know what India is doing on this regard. I didn’t have time to determine if India is on this house. However you’ve received to do one thing to allow these coal vegetation as they diminish and diminish in electrical era, well being impacts and carbon emissions.

You’ve received to nonetheless discover a approach for them to bridge this fiscal hole and allow them to make sufficient cash to remain open.

The primary query is will electrification of the mining trade be an answer to shutting down coal vegetation? Nicely, I’d say growing demand within the mining trade will not be a approach to cut back the demand for electrical energy that coal vegetation present. It’s a approach to make mining way more virtuous in and of itself. However mining is a heavy energy group now. All types of individuals all over the world are coping with this. If we take mining for instance, Australia, there was a giant mine there eight or 9 years in the past. It was a giant copper mine. They’d a requirement to considerably decarbonize the mine, electrify as a lot as potential. And what they did is that they constructed a 40-megawatt photo voltaic farm close to the mine. Mines have a tendency to not be in the midst of extremely populated areas for a wide range of good causes. And they also simply constructed lots of photo voltaic close to the mine, and so they considerably diminished their emissions as they moved ahead.

Definitely mining is a spot the place electrification is clearly the successful one, the place we have now, as we glance all over the world, BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Fortescue have all now asserted, and these are main giants. They’ve all asserted that as they’ve checked out decarbonizing mines, electrifying the mines is the reply. We’re beginning to see an increasing number of of the large vehicles being electrified.

There’s even one mine the place they’ve this extremely profitable resolution. The mine is on the prime of the hill. They load the large vehicles up and run them downhill, regeneratively braking to the valley to place them on rail vehicles. Then they drive the truck up with electrical energy they generated with regenerative braking on the best way down. So they really devour no electrical energy from anyplace in that mannequin. The truck generates its personal electrical energy as a result of it’s braking due to the large quantities of ore, and its huge hopper within the again. So I don’t suppose electrification within the mining trade is an answer. They want power. In the event that they electrify, they want extra electrical energy, and India wants to supply that electrical energy. However it’s the proper factor to do.

The subsequent query is about the effectivity components of coal vegetation versus non fossil distributed era. That is an fascinating one. There’s a simplistic approach of effectivity and capability components of various applied sciences. What is feasible with them? And so within the fossil gasoline world, effectivity actually issues since you’re consuming a gasoline that has an operational price. Even when it’s solely $40 per ton for coal, you’re nonetheless paying to make use of it.

You wish to get as a lot out of it as potential. However coal and fuel are thermal era. In thermal era, you’re boiling water to make steam to show generators. That cycle has vital limits by way of effectivity, simply thermodynamics. You’re creating warmth, which isn’t creating work. So a coal plant might need 38 or 40% effectivity at turning coal into electrical energy. A fuel turbine, which is particularly used for dashing up quick, very excessive pace, ramp-up peakers. Which may have an effectivity of solely 25% or 20%, however it’s okay since you’re utilizing it so hardly ever. A mixed cycle fuel plant, what they do is they really run a turbine with energy from the era, however then they use the waste warmth to additionally energy it. So they really stand up to 50, 55% effectivity components.

People who find themselves burning fossil fuels wish to do it as effectively as potential, so that they take advantage of cash. It’s simply one thing that’s been occurring for years, and the trade is doing nice stuff. However as we have a look at that on the opposite aspect, folks declare that photo voltaic isn’t good as a result of it solely has a 20 or 25% capability issue, or it’s pretty low effectivity at turning daylight into power, however we don’t care as a result of nobody’s paying for the gasoline. Identical with wind. Wind has a most effectivity of 59.3% of the wind’s power that flows by the blades may be theoretically captured by a sufficiently engineered wind turbine. And so we’re approaching that. We’re at 90% to 95% of Betz’ restrict in wind power. That sounds unhealthy, however we don’t care as a result of the wind and the solar are free.

There isn’t a operational price for gasoline. Turns into vital to consider this stuff because the levelized price of electrical energy is the measure, not the effectivity. As we value carbon, the levelized price of electrical energy from fossil fuels, regardless of how effectively they’re burned, goes up. However the levelized price of electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic stays the identical as a result of there aren’t any emissions throughout operation. The effectivity is a little bit of a crimson herring. What you must do is summary it as much as the purpose the place you’re wanting on the financial dialogue. Lazard has been doing its levelized price of electrical energy assessments for probably a decade now. Most not too long ago, prior to now few years, they’ve tended to concentrate on the USA, which has diminished their worth considerably, from my perspective.

However in the USA, photo voltaic or wind firmed with battery storage are nonetheless cheaper than fuel or coal, even in the USA, the place they don’t have a value on carbon emissions and coal or fuel era. As quickly as we are saying agency electrical energy from renewables is cheaper than fuel or coal era, there isn’t a financial argument left. The USA is simply, no matter any insurance policies from any stage of presidency, the USA is simply going to construct much more renewables. And this reveals, by the best way, I checked out some trajectories for the penetration of wind and photo voltaic from the Obama Biden administration, the Trump administration, after which the Biden Harris administration. And the curve was precisely the identical for twelve or 13 years. Nothing the federal government did modified it.

The Trump administration’s fairly well-known hatred of wind power did nothing to the slope of deployment of renewables. As a result of they’re cheaper, as a result of they’ve been confirmed to be dependable on grids, they’ve zero correlation with reliability. They’re not costly, and so everyone’s simply shopping for them, and they’re going to, so that they’ve gained. And so we’re simply going to maintain doing it. However giving tailwinds to the renewables and headwinds to coal and fuel is the appropriate alternative, and so they discover their optimum balancing level.

Subsequent query. When coal vegetation are shutting down in creating nations, are they stopping the additional coal extraction? Additionally, the coal may be exported. Is there any worldwide mechanism to cease that? It’s a terrific query.

So not too long ago I checked out the USA, which has dropped its coal era, and you’ll anticipate the quantity of coal that it mines would diminish in alignment with that. Nicely, there was a dip, however now coal mining is again as much as the place it was in 2000. [I just relooked at this, and while coal exports are up recently, they are not up as much as generation demand is down.] And the explanation for that’s precisely your level. The USA is a coal exporting nation, simply because it has turn into the world’s largest oil exporting nation and the world’s largest pure fuel exporting nation. Consider it or not, the USA is now a petrostate. It’s its personal Center east, which is creating lots of the issues we’re seeing within the nation.

I do know India has been having a few of these discussions as properly. Adani, I consider it was making an attempt to mine Australian coal and construct a railroad to get it to the shores, and I consider, blast a gap by the Nice Barrier Reef, which was fairly an odd alternative, after which ship that top grade bituminous coal to India to burn in India’s coal vegetation. This was being touted as an environmental win, and it’s actually very troublesome to name that an environmental win. However sure, coal exports are occurring. I’m simply going to say, as soon as once more, Canada will not be virtuous on this. We’ve been destroying mountains in western Canada and transport the coal to Japan and China for many years. It’s one of many issues we try this we have now nothing to be proud about. So, yeah, coal is only a commodity. The mechanism to cease that’s to cost carbon in all nations, or have the carbon value be utilized.

As I stated, Europe has the world’s largest buying and selling block, with the best flows throughout its borders and so many exports to Europe from lots of nations like China. That signifies that should you’re burning coal to make your merchandise, they’re excessive carbon emissions and so they’ll be priced accordingly. Coming into Europe, any nation which says, properly, we’re going to only purchase all this low-cost coal and that’s what we’re going to make use of to energy our economic system, is setting themselves as much as be priced out of the worldwide commerce markets as a result of their emissions will likely be priced. That’s an rising factor. As I stated in a dialogue on carbon pricing, North America nearly had a carbon border adjustment mechanism. China has a carbon value. Elements of Indonesia have carbon costs. California has a carbon value, carbon border adjustment mechanisms and pricing which can be going to be there.

Subsequent query. How can we evaluate the land requirement of coal vegetation on the subject of different choices? I’d say this can be a vital crimson herring if we have a look at the land necessities globally. Mark Z. Jacobson has performed this in his work on this. What he’s discovered is that we use a lot land for coal, oil and pure fuel extraction, processing, refining, distribution, era and use that it’s truly better than the whole land required for renewables in our future. Partially due to the first power fallacy, which I mentioned earlier within the sequence as properly, the place if we have a look at a contemporary economic system, we’d like lower than half of the first power coming in to ship all of the power, so long as we’re going from wind, photo voltaic and water to electrical power providers.

The land necessities of coal vegetation, they’re truly fairly huge. They take up fairly an quantity of land themselves, however you’ll be able to’t put sufficient photo voltaic on them or wind on them to generate as a lot electrical energy as a coal plant does. However that’s not the purpose. I at all times like to make use of a picture from the Netherlands, which has lots of wind power, with huge, stunning fields of tulips and completely different stunning colours and blooming flowers, with wind generators everywhere. In an operational field-based agricultural system, wind power takes up perhaps 1% of the land, and you can also make a alternative about placing it on the least productive parts of the land. That features the wind turbine bases, the entry roads, the extra tools for energy era. It’s 1%.

On ridgeline wind, you’re taking on 2% of land, however usually of land the place nothing’s occurring besides timber are rising. So you might be taking on 2% of the land, however you continue to produce other stuff occurring, together with simply nature between them. And photo voltaic is completely different as a result of, yeah, should you’ve received a 4 gigawatt photo voltaic farm that’s ground-mounted, that’s lots of land. Sometimes you solely try this in Mongolia or someplace the place there aren’t lots of people. However even in China, they’ve received huge quantities of photo voltaic on rooftops as a result of we have now all these rooftops, we’ve received flat roofs in all places. And so simply by placing photo voltaic on each rooftop that we are able to truly generate an amazing quantity of electrical energy with zero extra land necessities.

I usually see this argument with nuclear vegetation within the west, however yeah, the land use, it’s an financial issue. I had this dialogue a decade in the past with a MacArthur Genius Grant fellow, John Dabiri, the place he was making an attempt to argue that land use of wind power was problematic. I stated, no, it’s simply costed in. We lease slightly little bit of land from a farmer, they get a income stream of $6000 to $18,000 US per 12 months at the moment in the USA, a further drought-proof income stream. And that’s factored into the price of electrical energy. And so land use is simply one thing that goes into the levelized price of electrical energy. And that’s the best way to consider it.

I’ll say that India will not be distinctive on this, however it’s maybe extra challenged than many as a result of you might have over 1.4 billion folks now in an space a 3rd the scale of Europe or China or the USA, geographies I have a tendency to match you to. And so that you’ve received a bigger quantity of individuals in a smaller geographical space. However nonetheless, wind power doesn’t take up a lot house. We now have offshore wind and floating offshore wind. You’ve received lots of agricultural land the place you’ll be able to simply put up wind generators, and lots of rooftops the place you’ll be able to put up photo voltaic. And I feel that’s it for questions. Reji, do you wish to shut it out or do you wish to ask another questions, make another feedback?

RP: No, as I stated, I’m not in a very good surroundings with lots of background noise, so wouldn’t prefer to. However this can be a essential subject, which we want to have a better stage dialogue with the decision-makers in India a couple of roadmap for closing down coal vegetation. This can be a essential subject we must always take up. And also you rightly talked in regards to the land necessities. We’re additionally of late selling agrivoltaics, which may be very efficiently performed in elements of China. So the farmer will get to domesticate the land in addition to get an revenue from the photo voltaic plant builders. So simply by elevating the peak of the construction, many issues may be planted under the photo voltaic panels as a result of each crop doesn’t want direct daylight.

And we, India, the most important photo voltaic farms we have now constructed are in Dajistan and Gujarat, the place an enormous space is definitely a desert, so that’s being effectively used. And we have now one of many world’s largest floating photo voltaic vegetation, which is in Madhya Pradesh. It’s about 960 megawatts.