Join day by day information updates from CleanTechnica on e-mail. Or observe us on Google Information!
So, Tesla held its large annual shareholder assembly yesterday, and that included a vote to (once more) give Elon Musk by far the largest CEO compensation package deal in historical past. However the greatest story at Tesla is similar because it was final quarter, final yr, and within the years to come back. The corporate is attempting to shift into an AI and robotics firm. Whereas its income and income are virtually totally from producing and promoting vehicles proper now, Elon Musk and the corporate have been very clear recently — in the event you don’t consider in Tesla’s AI and robotics work and plans, you shouldn’t be invested in Tesla. Once more, that is what was emphasised within the annual Tesla shareholder assembly.
Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm famous that Tesla is exclusive in how giant its retail shareholder base is. The actual fact is: institutional buyers are much less inclined to consider that one thing will occur that’s by no means occurred earlier than, that one thing shall be created that hasn’t been created earlier than. Retail shareholders are extra inclined to consider in desires. A decade in the past, the dream was mass-produced, high-volume, inexpensive electrical vehicles. Those that believed had been rewarded when Tesla manufacturing and gross sales exploded. Those that didn’t consider and had been ridiculed by critics for years received the final snigger. Right now, the dream is one thing very totally different. Tesla gross sales have stagnated and even dropped after their lengthy climb, however the focus is now on AI, true full self driving, and a brand new era of robots which might be extra like people and able to doing quite a lot of duties.
Tesla’s previous success doesn’t predict what’s going to occur sooner or later. It could possibly be that Tesla once more achieves what most assume it can not, or it could possibly be that Tesla can’t succeed on this very totally different enterprise. The brand new targets will not be as “simple” as scaling up mass manufacturing of electrical vehicles. They contain going the place no firm has gone earlier than in advancing synthetic intelligence so as to allow widespread use of robotaxis by thousands and thousands of individuals and synthetic intelligence plus robotics so as to allow human-like robots that may carry out all kinds of duties.
However how about some quotes from Tesla now? To kick off, from the recorded intro video for the assembly, Elon Musk states, “My prediction is that a majority of Tesla’s long term value will be Optimus.” He additionally states, “Regarding FSD version 12, it’s profound. The rate of improvement is rapid. It might be the biggest asset value appreciation in history when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.”
However, once more, simply because Tesla achieved what it did prior to now doesn’t imply it’s going to obtain these targets. It’s a complete totally different recreation. Once more, you don’t need to take my phrase for it. Right here’s what Elon Musk acknowledged at yesterday’s assembly: “I think we’re not just opening a new chapter for Tesla. We’re starting a new book.”
I don’t assume anybody is aware of for certain what’s going to occur, however unquestionably, Elon Musk and Tesla shareholders consider within the story of this new guide. If all the pieces works, Tesla would be the solely firm on the earth with broadly accessible unsupervised full self-driving functionality in thousands and thousands of client vehicles. It’ll even be bringing a brand new product — a brand new residence and office robotic — to who is aware of what number of patrons? If these items work, potential development and income are not possible to think about. And the way lengthy it will take different firms to catch up can be utterly unpredictable, notably as a result of Tesla’s distinctive information supply and head begin.
If these items don’t work, nonetheless, Tesla will proceed to compete in opposition to a whole bunch of different automakers promoting an increasing number of, and higher and higher, electrical automobiles. If it fails on these large makes an attempt, that shall be a tarnish on the corporate and it’s going to be very tough to develop at wherever near the speed it has beforehand grown at. In the meantime, actually, if it continues to pour cash into FSD and robots they usually don’t bear fruit, particularly financially, then Tesla could possibly be pouring cash down a drain and massively disappointing shareholders with billions of {dollars} of inventory on the road. One may even say that if it fails on FSD and robotics, the corporate may collapse on itself — particularly if it has overbuilt its factories, shops, and repair facilities. What occurs in the event you plan for, and construct for, 50% development a yr however then find yourself with 0% development a yr?
Being utterly sincere and frank, I don’t have a robust, clear opinion on what’s going to occur. It’s arduous to know what Tesla can and might’t obtain with its method to FSD, robotaxis, and superior robots. I’ve learn numerous feedback for and in opposition to the corporate. Some appear convincing on one aspect, and a few appear convincing on the opposite aspect. However none can definitively inform us if Tesla’s method will work in the long run. And we will’t blindly consider Elon Musk, who mentioned there can be a full self-driving demonstration from San Francisco to New York Metropolis about 7 years in the past, and has misjudged the progress and way forward for the know-how for a number of years. We can also’t blindly consider skilled critics who say Tesla received’t obtain these items as a result of they haven’t been accomplished earlier than and Tesla doesn’t have the correct technological method, as a result of we heard that about SpaceX’s reusable rockets (and different issues), we heard that in regards to the Tesla Mannequin S, the Tesla Mannequin X, the Tesla Mannequin 3, and the Cybertruck. There are all the time some specialists who’re hyper-skeptical, have restricted imaginative and prescient, and find yourself being improper. I’ve seen it far an excessive amount of, particularly within the case of Tesla, to blindly consider specialists.
In the intervening time, for me, it’s a stalemate. I see causes to consider and causes to not consider. The loopy factor is simply how a lot is on the road on this case. It’s not a alternative between a burger or a burrito. It’s about whether or not Tesla will develop into the largest firm on the earth or stagnate and collapse. Maybe we’ll have higher perception into the place issues are headed by the tip of the yr, or even perhaps by the tip of the summer time. We’ll see. Within the meantime, please do share intensive, detailed arguments that make the case for both aspect. I’m all the time searching for new clues!
