Like a soft-hearted boxer attempting to provide the gang worth for cash, Apple has accomplished its greatest for years to maintain Google standing within the smartphone ring. If it actually exerted itself, we all the time felt, the Cupertino Crusher might put the Mountain View Mangler on the canvas in brief order. However the firm might by no means fairly deliver itself to use the coup de grâce.
The rationale, after all, has nothing to do with charity—Apple merely doesn’t wish to launch an iPhone that’s higher or dearer to fabricate than it must be. It has quite a few benefits over the assorted Android {hardware} distributors: it has extra money to spend on R&D, it will probably management and optimise {hardware} and software program collectively, it has higher buyer belief and model recognition, and its enterprise mannequin isn’t based mostly on promoting and knowledge seize. However whereas an “insanely great” iPhone would possibly kill Android as a sensible different, it might reduce into revenue margins and depart Apple with nowhere to go the next yr. A greater long-term technique is to launch telephones simply sufficient higher than the earlier technology to shift some models… and Google is welcome to stay round within the meantime.
Nonetheless, you possibly can’t sustain this type of factor indefinitely. Actually, it appears to be like like 2025 would be the yr when the iPhone lastly establishes a transparent and indeniable lead over its rival. I’m not saying Android goes the way in which of BlackBerry and Home windows Telephone fairly but, however I think that by this time subsequent yr the writing shall be on the wall and the graphs will all be entering into a route that makes Tim Cook dinner glad.
The iPhone SE from 2022 isn’t nice, however the 2025 iPhone SE shall be.
IDG
On the funds finish of the market, huge modifications are coming to the iPhone SE, a product that’s endured a tough couple of years however, as I wrote again in April, appears to be like set for a comeback within the subsequent iteration. The Third-gen mannequin failed to supply any worthwhile enhancements on the favored 2nd-gen SE, however stories recommend that Apple has realized its lesson: it’s lastly going to maneuver on from that antiquated chassis and provides the subsequent SE a 6.1-inch OLED display screen, Face ID, an A16 processor, and very good cameras. (Extremely, it appears to be like like it will likely be based mostly on the design of this yr’s iPhone 16.) The value will certainly be larger, however not by an enormous quantity, and $499 for that spec listing goes to be tough to withstand.
If Apple lastly takes that part of the market significantly, it’ll characterize a significant blow to Android’s prospects and telephones just like the Pixel 9a and Samsung Galaxy S24 FE. However extra unhealthy information is coming on the premium finish within the type of the iPhone 17. If clients apparently go nuts for cautious iterative updates just like the iPhone 15 and 16, what’s going to they make of the redesigned iPhone Air?
Believable rumors level to a shake-up in 2025, with Apple ditching the 17 Plus and changing it with a 17 Air (or Slim, or another branding). This handset shall be considerably thinner and lighter than the opposite fashions and will contain some compromises to accommodate this. In different phrases, it’s an iPhone X-like danger, however as my colleague Jason argues, it’s the sort that Apple must take. By changing the reportedly weakest-selling mannequin within the line with one thing daring, new, and trendy, the corporate will create buzz and enchantment to clients who’re uninterested in the identical previous iPhone look—in addition to entice some switchers alongside the way in which.
When you suppose the iPhone 16 Professional Max is skinny, simply wait till the iPhone 17 Air.
Foundry
Except for the aesthetic and comfort implications of a slimmer design, the 17-series iPhones also needs to deliver two sensible and at the moment Professional-exclusive display screen options–ProMotion, and the always-on show–and supply them throughout the vary. This can materially improve the enchantment of Apple’s base fashions and sure tempt much more Android customers to make the leap. Apple loves an upsell, which is why it holds again options like this for years for the dearer telephones. However they drop all the way down to the usual fashions in the long run, and that’s when their actual affect on gross sales is felt.
In different phrases, all of it appears to be like promising for the iPhone in 2025, and ominous for the Android ecosystem. Apple followers are even seeing enhancements within the areas the place the corporate has traditionally been weak. It was late to get on the AI bandwagon, however Apple Intelligence is rolling out this yr and is prone to discover its ft in 2025. iOS is painted as overly restrictive in terms of person customization, however iOS 18 is much extra versatile than any of Apple’s earlier software program updates—we are able to even tint icons and put them the place we wish! Even latest defeats for Apple, modifications imposed by political our bodies comparable to permitting third-party app shops and (with the utmost reluctance) catering to person repairs, add to the general enchantment of its product ecosystem. A much less inflexible walled backyard could also be much less worthwhile for Apple but it surely’s precisely the sort of factor that may entice curious Android customers.
Is there something left that Android does higher than the iPhone? Actually, not a lot. I suppose you’d have to incorporate foldables in that class, though I ponder how many individuals truly care. And the second folding smartphones develop into a worthwhile market, you’d think about Apple would swoop in with a folding iPhone that’s higher than something supplied by the competitors.
So no, I don’t suppose there’s any getting back from this. Android’s had a good run, and did effectively to remain on its ft this lengthy. However let’s be trustworthy: It’s time to chuck within the towel earlier than this combat will get ugly. RIP.